Tottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel272 kmRest days9.8 · 9.8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Tottenham—%
Draw—%
Leeds—%
Weather (London)
Forecast from 1 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Tottenham and Leeds. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Leeds
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Leeds
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.29xG against1.65
-
Insight
Leeds
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
TottenhamLeeds
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
73
56
AttackIn forecast
69
74
DefenceIn forecast
77
58
Form indexContext
64
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLeeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TottenhamLeeds
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
43%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
14.14
ShotsContext
12.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
27%
On target shareContext
33%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
60%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.43
14.14
Shots allowedContext
14.00
3.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
5.17
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
63%
Save rateContext
86%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
535
PassesContext
385
470
Accurate passesContext
302
88%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.86
FoulsContext
12.71
13.71
Fouls sufferedContext
11.86
1.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.40
ShotsContext
11.50
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
24%
On target shareContext
31%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
67%
Box shareContext
62%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.90
Shots allowedContext
14.90
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.40
BlocksContext
4.89
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
64%
Save rateContext
77%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
510
PassesContext
376
443
Accurate passesContext
292
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.92
14.20
FoulsContext
11.90
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Tottenham
DDLDW
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km524 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 6 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected
Leeds
DWDLD
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel272 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Tottenham |
Leeds |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.8Premier League 2026-2027, 6 Jan | 9.8Premier League 2026-2027, 6 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 524 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Tottenham
Last XI · not confirmed
31A. Kinský(G)
3A. Robertson
37M. van de Ven
4T. Adarabioyo
6J. van Hecke
16S. Tonali
14A. Gray
22O. Marmoush
10J. Maddison
20M. Kudus
19D. Solanke
Leeds
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović
30N. Elvedi
24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor
18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Tottenham
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Leeds
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Tottenham · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Leeds · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Tottenham | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Newcastle | L 0–2 H | W 4–1 H |
| Brentford | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 2 of 12 · 0.50 per game | 8 of 12 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 Tottenham wins1 draws1 Leeds wins
Goals per game2.63 – 1.25
Over 2.588%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 11 May 2026Tottenham1–1Leeds
- 4 Oct 2025Leeds1–2Tottenham
- 28 May 2023Leeds1–4Tottenham
- 12 Nov 2022Tottenham4–3Leeds
- 26 Feb 2022Leeds0–4Tottenham
- 21 Nov 2021Tottenham2–1Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Tottenham | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.14 | |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 29% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Tottenham | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Tottenham | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.57 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.14 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 3.72 | 4.29 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Tottenham | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.10 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 9.80 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.80 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Tottenham7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
Leeds7 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1
0-15
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
1
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
0-15
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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