Premier League Gameweek 21 Sat, Jan 16 · 15:00 Etihad Stadium, Manchester
Manchester City 1st · 21 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Nottingham Forest 19th · 5 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel93 kmRest days9.8 · 10.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Manchester City—%
Draw—%
Nottingham Forest—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Manchester)

Forecast from 1 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Manchester City and Nottingham Forest. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Manchester CityNottingham Forest
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
91 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
92 AttackIn forecast 68
82 DefenceIn forecast 74
93 Form indexContext 41
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester City

Attack—
Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester CityNottingham Forest
2.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.29
2.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
+0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.85
100% Scored inContext 43%
43% Clean sheetsContext 14%
14.57 ShotsContext 17.14
5.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.57
36% On target shareContext 21%
10.57 Shots in the boxContext 10.43
70% Box shareContext 61%
19% ConversionContext 4%
2.17 OffsidesContext 2.33
11.43 Shots allowedContext 10.57
4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.83
3.00 BlocksContext 3.00
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
72% Save rateContext 68%
64% PossessionIn forecast 46%
635 PassesContext 370
567 Accurate passesContext 292
89% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.23 Team ratingContext 6.79
10.71 FoulsContext 14.14
14.57 Fouls sufferedContext 11.57
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.29
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
2.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53
+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.66
100% Scored inContext 60%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
16.50 ShotsContext 16.30
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
36% On target shareContext 25%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
69% Box shareContext 65%
15% ConversionContext 6%
1.89 OffsidesContext 2.11
11.20 Shots allowedContext 13.60
4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56
2.50 BlocksContext 4.40
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
68% Save rateContext 70%
62% PossessionIn forecast 46%
606 PassesContext 388
541 Accurate passesContext 309
89% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.10 Team ratingContext 6.81
11.00 FoulsContext 13.10
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester City
Rest9.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 93 · 12 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Ipswich3–22.5 xPts
  • L14 OctH · Paris Saint Germain2–41.9 xPts
  • W11 OctA · Liverpool3–01.5 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Sunderland5–32.3 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Manchester United1–01.5 xPts
Nottingham Forest
Rest10.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel93 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 4 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Arsenal0–10.9 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Crystal Palace1–31.4 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Coventry0–12.1 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Aston Villa2–11.0 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Tottenham0–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Manchester City Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match9.8Premier League 2026-2027, 6 Jan10.8Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km93 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways115 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 50 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one4.27

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester City Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ipswich (H) 3–2, 17 Oct
1G. Donnarumma(G)
33N. O'Reilly 6A. Guéhi 3Rúben Dias 27M. Nunes
32A. Bouaddi 8M. Kovačić
11J. Doku 47P. Foden 7I. Ndiaye
9E. Haaland
Nottingham Forest Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Arsenal (H) 0–1, 18 Oct
26M. Sels(G)
5Murillo 2O. Diomande 23Jair
3N. Williams 21X. Schlager 24J. McAtee 27D. Muñoz
14D. Ndoye 8N. Domínguez
19L. Delap

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Manchester City Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Nottingham Forest Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Manchester City · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
2.75
Conceded
1.50
Nottingham Forest · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.67
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentManchester CityNottingham Forest
Liverpool W 3–0 A D 2–2 A
Coventry W 1–0 H L 0–1 H
Crystal Palace W 4–1 A L 1–3 A
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Manchester City wins2 draws1 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game2.25 – 0.63 Over 2.550% Both scored38% Clean sheets50% · 13%
  • 4 Mar 2026Manchester City2–2Nottingham Forest
  • 27 Dec 2025Nottingham Forest1–2Manchester City
  • 8 Mar 2025Nottingham Forest1–0Manchester City
  • 4 Dec 2024Manchester City3–0Nottingham Forest
  • 28 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest0–2Manchester City
  • 23 Sep 2023Manchester City2–0Nottingham Forest

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Manchester CityNottingham ForestForecast
Scored per game 2.710.71
Conceded per game 1.001.29
Match goals 3.712.00
Over 1.5 71%43%
Over 2.5 71%43%
Over 3.5 43%29%
Both teams scored 57%43%
Clean sheets 43%14%
Failed to score 0%57%
Games77
Manchester CityNottingham ForestForecast
Scored per game 2.400.90
Conceded per game 1.301.40
Match goals 3.702.30
Over 1.5 80%60%
Over 2.5 70%40%
Over 3.5 40%30%
Both teams scored 60%60%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 0%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Manchester CityNottingham ForestLeague
Corners
Corners won5.574.71
Corners conceded4.144.86
Match total9.719.579.49
Over 8.571% 5/743% 3/7
Over 9.557% 4/743% 3/7
Over 10.557% 4/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.432.29
Opponent cards1.861.71
Match total3.294.004.17
Over 3.529% 2/757% 4/7
Over 4.514% 1/729% 2/7
Manchester CityNottingham ForestLeague
Corners
Corners won6.404.70
Corners conceded3.704.50
Match total10.109.209.49
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 9.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 10.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.502.00
Opponent cards1.501.50
Match total3.003.504.17
Over 3.530% 3/1040% 4/10
Over 4.510% 1/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Manchester City7 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
5 1 76-90
Nottingham Forest7 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
2 2 31-45
6 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 5 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Newcastle Fulham Jan 1615:00 Bournemouth Ipswich Jan 1615:00 Liverpool Crystal Palace Jan 1615:00 Tottenham Leeds Jan 1615:00 Chelsea Sunderland Jan 1615:00 Manchester City Nottingham Forest Jan 1615:00 Brentford Brighton Jan 1615:00 Hull City Arsenal Jan 1615:00 Aston Villa Manchester United Jan 1615:00 Coventry Everton Jan 1615:00