Newcastle vs Sunderland – 22 Mar 2026

Premier League Gameweek 31 Sun, Mar 22 · 12:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 11th · 42 pts · 30 played WLLWW

1–2Full time

Sunderland 13th · 40 pts · 30 played LLDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Newcastle were clear favourites.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Newcastle had 7.8 days of rest, Sunderland 7.9 and had to travel 17 km.

Away travel17 kmRest days7.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Newcastle66%

Draw19%

Sunderland15%

Expected goals 2.37 – 1.08

Newcastle62%

Draw22%

Sunderland16%

Expected goals 1.99 – 0.90

Newcastle64%

Draw20%

Sunderland16%

Expected goals 2.29 – 1.06

Newcastle58%

Draw22%

Sunderland21%

Expected goals 2.12 – 1.21

Newcastle64%

Draw20%

Sunderland16%

Expected goals 2.25 – 1.03

Over 2.5 67% Both score 60% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 200

Team strength

Newcastle

Sunderland

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 57

61 AttackIn forecast 62

61 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sunderland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Sunderland

1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.17

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.46

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

77% Scored inContext 63%

27% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.10 ShotsContext 9.63

4.73 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.28

36% On target shareContext 33%

8.43 Shots in the boxContext 7.23

62% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.21 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.77 Shots allowedContext 14.63

4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.48

3.78 BlocksContext 4.73

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

68% Save rateContext 72%

53% PossessionIn forecast 44%

449 PassesContext 371

375 Accurate passesContext 292

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.84

10.24 FoulsContext 10.10

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.93

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.97

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

2.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

100% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.70 ShotsContext 10.50

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

42% On target shareContext 34%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.56

66% Box shareContext 68%

15% ConversionContext 10%

3.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.40 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

3.90 BlocksContext 5.10

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

61% Save rateContext 60%

50% PossessionIn forecast 47%

406 PassesContext 406

337 Accurate passesContext 325

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.50 FoulsContext 11.60

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km796 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sunderland

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel17 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Sunderland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Mar	7.9Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	17 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	796 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

32A. Ramsdale(G)

3L. Hall 33D. Burn 4S. Botman 2K. Trippier

41J. Ramsey 7Joelinton

11H. Barnes 27N. Woltemade 20A. Elanga

10A. Gordon

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Sunderland Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

31M. Ellborg(G)

32T. Hume 15O. Alderete 13L. O'Nien 6L. Geertruida

34G. Xhaka

7C. Talbi 27N. Sadiki 19M. Diarra 11C. Rigg

9B. Brobbey

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sunderland Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.14 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle+1.2 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Sunderland-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.73points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 8-2-5
Scored: 1.87
Conceded: 1.60

Sunderland · Away 0.93points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-7
Scored: 0.53
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Sunderland
Chelsea	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H	W 2–1 A
Manchester United	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Everton	L 2–3 HW 4–1 A	D 1–1 H
Manchester City	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A
Tottenham	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	D 1–1 A
Brentford	L 2–3 HL 1–3 A	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H
Liverpool	L 1–4 AL 2–3 H	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
Aston Villa	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 H
Wolves	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Leeds	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 HD 0–0 A
Burnley	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A
West Ham	L 1–3 A	L 1–3 AW 3–0 H
Fulham	W 2–1 H	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A
Brighton	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	W 1–0 A
Arsenal	L 1–2 H	L 0–3 AD 2–2 H
Bournemouth	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 AW 3–2 H
Points	42 of 87 · 1.45 per game	37 of 87 · 1.28 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Newcastle wins0 draws1 Sunderland wins

Goals per game0.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

14 Dec 2025Sunderland1–0Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	1.43	1.00
Conceded per game	1.43	1.17
Match goals	2.87	2.17	3.45
Over 1.5	73%	70%
Over 2.5	63%	40%	67%
Over 3.5	37%	13%
Both teams scored	63%	43%	60%
Clean sheets	27%	30%
Failed to score	23%	37%
Games	30	30

	Newcastle	Sunderland	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.90
Conceded per game	1.90	1.60
Match goals	3.40	2.50	3.45
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	67%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	3.53
Corners conceded	5.03	5.07
Match total	11.53	8.60	10.02
Over 8.5	80% 24/30	53% 16/30
Over 9.5	63% 19/30	47% 14/30
Over 10.5	53% 16/30	30% 9/30
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.03
Opponent cards	2.37	1.80
Match total	4.17	3.83	3.92
Over 3.5	60% 18/30	50% 15/30
Over 4.5	37% 11/30	40% 12/30

	Newcastle	Sunderland	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.33
Corners conceded	4.80	5.33
Match total	10.80	8.66	10.02
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.30
Opponent cards	1.80	1.90
Match total	4.10	4.20	3.92
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.76league 3.78

Red cards0.15league 0.13

Cards 5+36%league 40%

Fouls21.0league 21.4

Penalties0.24league 0.22

Home wins35%league 42%

Newcastle14 with this referee

Record8-1-5 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W10 Feb 26A · Tottenham2–12
L26 Dec 25A · Manchester United0–11
W26 Dec 24H · Aston Villa3–02
W10 Nov 24A · Nottingham Forest3–11
W4 May 24A · Burnley4–12

Sunderland1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W30 Aug 25H · Brentford2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.