Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel538 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Nice—%
Draw—%
Auxerre—%
Weather (Nice)
Forecast from 5 Feb
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Nice and Auxerre. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Auxerre
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Auxerre
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Auxerre
−0.63
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.47xG against2.10
Attack
-
Trend
Auxerre
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Auxerre
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Auxerre
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
Team strength
NiceAuxerre
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
26
AttackIn forecast
39
35
DefenceIn forecast
25
44
Form indexContext
61
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceAuxerre
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.43
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.42
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
57%
Scored inContext
100%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.71
ShotsContext
11.86
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.14
32%
On target shareContext
43%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
65%
Box shareContext
49%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.80
11.86
Shots allowedContext
14.71
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.29
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.29
65%
Save rateContext
68%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
546
PassesContext
384
478
Accurate passesContext
311
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.62
9.29
FoulsContext
14.86
8.14
Fouls sufferedContext
10.14
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.10
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.10
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
30%
On target shareContext
45%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
68%
Box shareContext
55%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.60
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.60
BlocksContext
3.33
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
67%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
508
PassesContext
385
439
Accurate passesContext
312
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.75
9.40
FoulsContext
14.60
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
DLWWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,667 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Auxerre
LWWLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel538 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 61 · 9 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Feb | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 538 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,667 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Last XI · not confirmed
23Y. Diouf(G)
35X. Mandza Tsiendi
55Y. Ndayishimiye
5M. Mohamed Ahmed
27N. Nkounkou
6H. Boudaoui
28A. Witsel
92J. Clauss
9M. Amoura
7G. Hein
11S. Wahi
Auxerre
Last XI · not confirmed
1P. Nardi(G)
92C. Akpa
4A. Tuanzebe
15C. Makosso
22F. Oppegård
5K. Danois
8N. Ahamada
27L. Sy
10D. Namaso
21R. Faivre
9C. Archer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Auxerre
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.75
Auxerre · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 3.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Nice | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Nice wins3 draws3 Auxerre wins
Goals per game1.14 – 1.29
Over 2.543%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets0% · 14%
- 12 Sep 2026Auxerre1–0Nice
- 10 May 2026Auxerre2–1Nice
- 23 Aug 2025Nice3–1Auxerre
- 14 Mar 2025Nice1–1Auxerre
- 18 Aug 2024Auxerre2–1Nice
- 3 Mar 2023Nice1–1Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 2.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 86% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 86% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Nice | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.70 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.71 | 5.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 7.57 | |
| Match total | 8.71 | 13.14 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.86 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 2.72 | 3.28 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Nice | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.90 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.50 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Nice7 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Auxerre7 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
7
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
