Ligue 1 Gameweek 21 Sat, Feb 20 · 16:00 Parc des Princes, Paris
Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 14 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Stade Brestois 29 10th · 9 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel505 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Paris Saint Germain—%
Draw—%
Stade Brestois 29—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Paris)

Forecast from 5 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Paris Saint Germain and Stade Brestois 29. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Paris Saint GermainStade Brestois 29
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
89 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
91 AttackIn forecast 47
83 DefenceIn forecast 36
96 Form indexContext 49
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—
Defense risk—

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris Saint GermainStade Brestois 29
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86
1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43
2.65 xGVia Att/Def 2.55
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
-0.65 Goals minus xGContext -0.69
100% Scored inContext 86%
14% Clean sheetsContext 0%
20.57 ShotsContext 17.14
7.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.86
35% On target shareContext 34%
11.71 Shots in the boxContext 11.29
56% Box shareContext 63%
10% ConversionContext 11%
3.20 OffsidesContext 2.40
10.86 Shots allowedContext 11.71
4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
2.17 BlocksContext 2.57
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67
83% Save rateContext 76%
68% PossessionIn forecast 46%
708 PassesContext 408
637 Accurate passesContext 333
90% Pass accuracyContext 82%
7.03 Team ratingContext 6.83
5.71 FoulsContext 14.14
11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 13.29
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
2.37 xGVia Att/Def 2.02
1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.52
100% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 0%
21.50 ShotsContext 16.10
7.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
36% On target shareContext 33%
12.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.70
56% Box shareContext 64%
12% ConversionContext 9%
3.33 OffsidesContext 2.43
11.90 Shots allowedContext 12.30
4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
3.22 BlocksContext 3.30
4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
78% Save rateContext 71%
67% PossessionIn forecast 46%
702 PassesContext 414
632 Accurate passesContext 340
90% Pass accuracyContext 82%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.86
7.00 FoulsContext 12.80
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km369 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts
Stade Brestois 29
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel505 km2,089 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 49 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Lille1–11.0 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Angers5–11.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Auxerre1–21.5 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Paris Saint Germain0–10.7 xPts
  • W5 SepA · LE Havre2–11.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Paris Saint Germain Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Feb7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km505 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways369 km2,089 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 51 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one8.27

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Strasbourg (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo 27Dro Fernández 87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche
Stade Brestois 29 Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lille (A) 1–1, 17 Oct
1E. Selvik(G)
2B. Locko 4G. Lloris 29L. Tousart 70K. Lala
8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard
9P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 17M. Baldé
19L. Ajorque

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Paris Saint Germain Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Stade Brestois 29 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50
Stade Brestois 29 · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentParis Saint GermainStade Brestois 29
Le Mans W 3–1 H D 2–2 A
Lille D 2–2 A D 1–1 A
Points4 of 6 · 2.00 per game2 of 6 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings

9 Paris Saint Germain wins1 draws0 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.80 Over 2.580% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 13 Sep 2026Stade Brestois 290–1Paris Saint Germain
  • 10 May 2026Paris Saint Germain1–0Stade Brestois 29
  • 25 Oct 2025Stade Brestois 290–3Paris Saint Germain
  • 19 Feb 2025Paris Saint Germain7–0Stade Brestois 29
  • 11 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 290–3Paris Saint Germain
  • 1 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 292–5Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Paris Saint GermainStade Brestois 29Forecast
Scored per game 2.001.86
Conceded per game 1.291.43
Match goals 3.293.29
Over 1.5 86%86%
Over 2.5 86%71%
Over 3.5 57%43%
Both teams scored 86%86%
Clean sheets 14%0%
Failed to score 0%14%
Games77
Paris Saint GermainStade Brestois 29Forecast
Scored per game 2.501.50
Conceded per game 1.401.40
Match goals 3.902.90
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 90%60%
Over 3.5 60%30%
Both teams scored 90%80%
Clean sheets 10%0%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Paris Saint GermainStade Brestois 29League
Corners
Corners won4.754.86
Corners conceded3.254.00
Match total8.008.869.63
Over 8.550% 2/471% 5/7
Over 9.525% 1/443% 3/7
Over 10.50% 0/429% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.001.29
Opponent cards2.431.71
Match total3.433.003.47
Over 3.543% 3/714% 1/7
Over 4.529% 2/714% 1/7
Paris Saint GermainStade Brestois 29League
Corners
Corners won5.574.70
Corners conceded4.144.60
Match total9.719.309.63
Over 8.571% 5/780% 8/10
Over 9.543% 3/740% 4/10
Over 10.529% 2/730% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.001.00
Opponent cards2.301.40
Match total3.302.403.47
Over 3.540% 4/1010% 1/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Paris Saint Germain7 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Stade Brestois 297 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
3 2 0-15
4 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 2 76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
2 4 46-60
7 3 61-75
7 1 76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
4 3 0-15
4 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Angers Paris FC Feb 2016:00 Lille Lorient Feb 2016:00 Nice Auxerre Feb 2016:00 Paris Saint Germain Stade Brestois 29 Feb 2016:00 Monaco Le Mans Feb 2016:00 Rennes Toulouse Feb 2016:00 Strasbourg Marseille Feb 2016:00 LE Havre Lyon Feb 2016:00 Lens Estac Troyes Feb 2016:00