Rennes vs Toulouse – 20 Feb 2027

Ligue 1 Gameweek 21 Sat, Feb 20 · 16:00 Roazhon Park, Rennes

Rennes 6th · 13 pts · 7 played WWLWL

VS— Compare

Toulouse 11th · 9 pts · 7 played LDWDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel556 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Rennes—%

Draw—%

Toulouse—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Rennes)

Forecast from 5 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Rennes

Toulouse

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

63 AttackIn forecast 45

39 DefenceIn forecast 49

42 Form indexContext 54

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rennes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rennes

Toulouse

2.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57

2.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.80

2.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

86% Scored inContext 71%

14% Clean sheetsContext 14%

16.29 ShotsContext 13.57

6.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

39% On target shareContext 34%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

65% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.17

15.29 Shots allowedContext 14.43

5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43

4.71 BlocksContext 4.00

3.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

63% Save rateContext 65%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

472 PassesContext 500

398 Accurate passesContext 430

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.88

13.57 FoulsContext 15.43

11.43 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

2.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

18.60 ShotsContext 12.70

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

34% On target shareContext 35%

12.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.11

66% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 13%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.29

14.70 Shots allowedContext 12.80

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.89 BlocksContext 4.33

4.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

68% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 48%

476 PassesContext 428

403 Accurate passesContext 366

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.87

12.40 FoulsContext 14.60

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rennes DLWWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km421 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 42 · 7 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L18 OctA · Paris FC3–41.4 xPts
W15 OctH · OFI2–12.2 xPts
W11 OctH · Auxerre4–12.1 xPts
L19 SepA · Lyon0–41.2 xPts
D16 SepA · Sturm Graz0–01.4 xPts

Toulouse LDWDW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel556 km1,325 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 54 · 8 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W16 OctA · Le Mans3–01.4 xPts
D10 OctA · Monaco2–20.7 xPts
W19 SepH · LE Havre3–21.9 xPts
D12 SepA · Lorient2–21.1 xPts
L3 SepH · Lille0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rennes	Toulouse
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Feb	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	556 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	421 km	1,325 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rennes Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Paris FC (A) 3–4, 18 Oct

30B. Samba(G)

95P. Frankowski 24A. Rouault 4C. Cresswell 14B. Reynolds

28A. Thomasson 6D. Cissé 17S. Szymański

90I. Soumaré 9E. Lepaul 10L. Blas

Toulouse Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Le Mans (A) 3–0, 16 Oct

16G. Restes(G)

12C. Tapé 2R. Nicolaisen 3M. McKenzie 22R. Messali

14N. Sigur 23C. Cásseres

8T. Jørgensen 20C. Tengstedt 15A. Dønnum

13J. Russell-Rowe

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rennes Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Toulouse Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Rennes · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 1.25

Toulouse · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-0
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Rennes	Toulouse
Lyon	L 0–4 A	L 0–2 H
Le Mans	W 3–2 H	W 3–0 A
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Rennes wins2 draws4 Toulouse wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 25%

28 Feb 2026Rennes1–0Toulouse
29 Oct 2025Toulouse2–2Rennes
3 May 2025Toulouse2–1Rennes
10 Nov 2024Rennes0–2Toulouse
13 Apr 2024Rennes1–2Toulouse
17 Dec 2023Toulouse0–0Rennes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rennes	Toulouse
Scored per game	2.14	1.71
Conceded per game	2.00	1.57
Match goals	4.14	3.29
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	86%	71%
Over 3.5	71%	57%
Both teams scored	71%	57%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	14%	29%
Games	7	7

	Rennes	Toulouse
Scored per game	1.80	1.60
Conceded per game	1.80	1.30
Match goals	3.60	2.90
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	70%
Over 3.5	60%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rennes	Toulouse	League
Corners
Corners won	6.83	4.14
Corners conceded	5.67	4.43
Match total	12.50	8.57	9.63
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.43	1.57
Opponent cards	2.43	1.43
Match total	4.86	3.00	3.47
Over 3.5	86% 6/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	14% 1/7

	Rennes	Toulouse	League
Corners
Corners won	7.56	4.10
Corners conceded	5.11	4.90
Match total	12.67	9.00	9.63
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.50	1.30
Match total	4.50	3.30	3.47
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.