Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 45). Nice come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Nice had 5.1 days of rest, SC Freiburg 5.1 and had to travel 479 km.
Away travel479 kmRest days5.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d4 · 3
Nice32%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg42%
Nice37%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg36%
Nice33%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg40%
Nice25%
Draw26%
SC Freiburg49%
Nice35%
Draw27%
SC Freiburg37%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
Referee · GreeceAnastasios Sidiropoulos
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 62
Team strength
Nice
SC Freiburg
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
26
AttackIn forecast
63
35
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceSC Freiburg
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
8.33
ShotsContext
13.67
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
32%
On target shareContext
44%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
62%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.67
Shots allowedContext
11.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
6.67
BlocksContext
4.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
60%
Save rateContext
78%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
360
PassesContext
399
286
Accurate passesContext
324
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.67
FoulsContext
12.33
17.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.70
ShotsContext
11.60
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
37%
On target shareContext
38%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
60%
Box shareContext
68%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.14
18.60
Shots allowedContext
11.10
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
7.30
BlocksContext
3.40
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
71%
Save rateContext
77%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
344
PassesContext
379
274
Accurate passesContext
304
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.10
FoulsContext
9.80
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km5,684 km in 14d
Schedule load45%High
SC Freiburg
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel479 km1,966 km in 14d
Schedule load26%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
SC Freiburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 45 | Moderate · 26 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Nov | 5.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 479 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 5,684 km | 1,966 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 4 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
26M. Bard
28A. Bah
33A. Mendy
2A. Abdi
24C. Vanhoutte
99S. Abdul Samed
47Tiago Gouveia
10S. Diop
7J. Boga
90Kevin Carlos
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
7D. Scherhant
20C. Adamu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Freiburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice-1.6 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- SC Freiburg+1.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
SC Freiburg · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.33 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Nice | SC Freiburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.20 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.67 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Nice | SC Freiburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.38 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anastasios Sidiropoulos Greece · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.31league 4.06
Red cards0.35league 0.15
Cards 5+68%league 39%
Fouls26.5league 24.9
Penalties0.47league 0.39
Home wins39%league 48%
Nice1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L24 Oct 24A · Ferencvarosi TC0–13
SC FreiburgNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice3 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
SC Freiburg3 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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