Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa – 12 Apr 2026

Premier League Gameweek 32 Sun, Apr 12 · 14:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest 16th · 32 pts · 31 played LLDDW

1–1Full time

Aston Villa 4th · 54 pts · 31 played DLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had 2.8 days of rest, Aston Villa 2.8 and had to travel 73 km.

Away travel73 kmRest days2.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Nottingham Forest40%

Draw27%

Aston Villa33%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.30

Nottingham Forest31%

Draw27%

Aston Villa42%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.45

Nottingham Forest40%

Draw27%

Aston Villa33%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.30

Nottingham Forest33%

Draw27%

Aston Villa41%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.46

Nottingham Forest40%

Draw28%

Aston Villa33%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.22

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Salisbury

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 84

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

68 AttackIn forecast 83

74 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.35

1.39 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.19

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

55% Scored inContext 71%

26% Clean sheetsContext 29%

12.65 ShotsContext 12.81

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.35

31% On target shareContext 34%

7.58 Shots in the boxContext 8.27

62% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.84

12.65 Shots allowedContext 12.74

4.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.23

4.50 BlocksContext 3.97

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.07

64% Save rateContext 70%

47% PossessionIn forecast 54%

413 PassesContext 451

341 Accurate passesContext 384

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.77 FoulsContext 9.77

11.77 Fouls sufferedContext 12.74

1.55 Yellow cardsContext 1.52

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

70% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.20 ShotsContext 11.70

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

32% On target shareContext 29%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

60% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.88 OffsidesContext 1.86

11.40 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.30 BlocksContext 3.70

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

73% Save rateContext 73%

46% PossessionIn forecast 52%

426 PassesContext 446

351 Accurate passesContext 379

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.10 FoulsContext 10.10

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,855 km in 14d

Schedule load13%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel73 km2,631 km in 14d

Schedule load13%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 13	Low · 13
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 9 Apr	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 9 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	73 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,855 km	2,631 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	4.3	4.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Sels(G)

3N. Williams 5Murillo 31N. Milenković 34T. Aina

8E. Anderson 6I. Sangaré

7C. Hudson-Odoi 10M. Gibbs-White 21O. Hutchinson

19Igor Jesus

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

40M. Bizot(G)

12L. Digne 14Pau Torres 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash

8Y. Tielemans 24A. Onana

27M. Rogers 6R. Barkley 7J. McGinn

11O. Watkins

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Aston Villa-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 0.93points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 3-5-7
Scored: 0.87
Conceded: 1.27

Aston Villa · Away 1.47points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 6-4-5
Scored: 1.27
Conceded: 1.47

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa
Tottenham	W 3–0 AW 3–0 H	W 2–1 A
Fulham	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Manchester City	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 H
Brighton	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	W 1–0 HW 4–3 A
Liverpool	L 0–1 HW 3–0 A	L 0–2 A
Wolves	D 0–0 HW 1–0 A	L 0–2 AW 1–0 H
Leeds	L 1–3 AW 3–1 H	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
Crystal Palace	D 1–1 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 AL 0–3 H
Brentford	W 2–0 AW 3–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A
Arsenal	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A	L 1–4 AW 2–1 H
West Ham	W 2–1 AL 0–3 H	W 2–0 HW 3–2 A
Everton	L 0–2 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A
Manchester United	D 2–2 H	L 1–3 AW 2–1 H
Bournemouth	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 AW 4–0 H
Chelsea	L 0–3 H	L 1–4 HW 2–1 A
Newcastle	L 0–2 A	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H
Sunderland	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Burnley	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Points	32 of 90 · 1.07 per game	51 of 90 · 1.70 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Nottingham Forest wins1 draws4 Aston Villa wins

Goals per game1.29 – 1.86 Over 2.557% Both scored71% Clean sheets14% · 14%

3 Jan 2026Aston Villa3–1Nottingham Forest
5 Apr 2025Aston Villa2–1Nottingham Forest
14 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest2–1Aston Villa
24 Feb 2024Aston Villa4–2Nottingham Forest
5 Nov 2023Nottingham Forest2–0Aston Villa
8 Apr 2023Aston Villa2–0Nottingham Forest

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.35
Conceded per game	1.39	1.19
Match goals	2.39	2.55	2.75
Over 1.5	77%	71%
Over 2.5	52%	48%	52%
Over 3.5	19%	26%
Both teams scored	39%	52%	56%
Clean sheets	26%	29%
Failed to score	45%	29%
Games	31	31

	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.30
Conceded per game	1.00	1.20
Match goals	2.30	2.50	2.75
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	30%	52%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.35	5.37
Corners conceded	4.90	4.93
Match total	10.25	10.30	10.05
Over 8.5	77% 24/31	77% 23/30
Over 9.5	61% 19/31	70% 21/30
Over 10.5	45% 14/31	53% 16/30
Cards
Cards	1.58	1.55
Opponent cards	1.81	2.48
Match total	3.39	4.03	3.90
Over 3.5	42% 13/31	61% 19/31
Over 4.5	23% 7/31	42% 13/31

	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	4.67
Corners conceded	4.60	5.56
Match total	10.00	10.23	10.05
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.60
Opponent cards	1.60	2.00
Match total	3.10	3.60	3.90
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Salisbury 84 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.62league 3.76

Red cards0.20league 0.12

Cards 5+37%league 39%

Fouls22.3league 21.4

Penalties0.30league 0.22

Home wins50%league 42%

Nottingham Forest5 with this referee

Record3-0-2 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 0

W15 Mar 25A · Ipswich4–21
L10 Mar 24A · Brighton0–14
L12 Nov 23A · West Ham2–32
W23 Apr 22A · Peterborough1–03
W25 Jan 22H · Barnsley3–02

Aston Villa5 with this referee

Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 0

D6 Apr 24H · Brentford3–32
W27 Aug 23A · Burnley3–10
D22 Apr 23A · Brentford1–12
W21 Jan 23A · Southampton1–02
W27 Nov 21A · Crystal Palace2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.