Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa – 30 Apr 2026

UEFA Europa League Semi-finals Thu, Apr 30 · 20:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest 5th · 7 pts · 4 played LWDW

1–0Full time

Aston Villa 1st · 12 pts · 4 played WWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 74). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had 6 days of rest, Aston Villa 5.3 and had to travel 73 km.

Away travel73 kmRest days6 · 5.3Matches / 14d3 · 3

Nottingham Forest45%

Draw26%

Aston Villa29%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.27

Nottingham Forest35%

Draw27%

Aston Villa37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.36

Nottingham Forest46%

Draw26%

Aston Villa29%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.25

Nottingham Forest38%

Draw26%

Aston Villa36%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.43

Nottingham Forest45%

Draw26%

Aston Villa29%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.23

Over 2.5 56% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 100

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

68 AttackIn forecast 83

74 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.25

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.35

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.67

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext +1.15

75% Scored inContext 100%

25% Clean sheetsContext 75%

16.75 ShotsContext 9.25

5.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

31% On target shareContext 38%

10.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.25

62% Box shareContext 63%

6% ConversionContext 27%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.00

10.75 Shots allowedContext 10.75

3.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.25

2.75 BlocksContext 4.00

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

77% Save rateContext 85%

54% PossessionIn forecast 48%

487 PassesContext 401

410 Accurate passesContext 334

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.98

12.50 FoulsContext 11.50

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.75

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.62 Goals minus xGContext +0.53

80% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.00 ShotsContext 11.50

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

37% On target shareContext 35%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

64% Box shareContext 63%

15% ConversionContext 17%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.33

11.30 Shots allowedContext 12.10

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

3.40 BlocksContext 4.00

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

78% Save rateContext 71%

46% PossessionIn forecast 51%

410 PassesContext 440

335 Accurate passesContext 376

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.50 FoulsContext 9.70

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km435 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel73 km325 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2025-2026, 24 Apr	5.3Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	73 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	435 km	325 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-4-2

27S. Ortega(G)

3N. Williams 4Morato 31N. Milenković 34T. Aina

10M. Gibbs-White 8E. Anderson 16N. Domínguez 21O. Hutchinson

11C. Wood 19Igor Jesus

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

12L. Digne 14Pau Torres 4E. Konsa 2M. Cash

8Y. Tielemans 24A. Onana

10E. Buendía 27M. Rogers 7J. McGinn

11O. Watkins

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest-0.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Aston Villa+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.50

Aston Villa · Away 3.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Nottingham Forest wins2 draws4 Aston Villa wins

Goals per game1.25 – 1.75 Over 2.550% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 13%

12 Apr 2026Nottingham Forest1–1Aston Villa
3 Jan 2026Aston Villa3–1Nottingham Forest
5 Apr 2025Aston Villa2–1Nottingham Forest
14 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest2–1Aston Villa
24 Feb 2024Aston Villa4–2Nottingham Forest
5 Nov 2023Nottingham Forest2–0Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.50
Conceded per game	0.75	0.25
Match goals	1.75	2.75	2.91
Over 1.5	50%	75%
Over 2.5	25%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	25%	59%
Clean sheets	25%	75%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	4	4

	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.90
Conceded per game	0.70	1.30
Match goals	2.60	3.20	2.91
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	6.75	3.25
Corners conceded	3.00	3.50
Match total	9.75	6.75	8.48
Over 8.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	25% 1/4	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	25% 1/4	0% 0/4
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.25	1.00
Match total	3.25	2.00	4.52
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/4
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	0% 0/4

	Nottingham Forest	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	4.00
Corners conceded	4.50	4.80
Match total	9.80	8.80	8.48
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.40
Opponent cards	1.90	1.70
Match total	3.80	3.10	4.52
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 100 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.49league 4.33

Red cards0.22league 0.29

Cards 5+47%league 58%

Fouls25.6league 26.2

Penalties0.28league 0.25

Home wins41%league 46%

Nottingham Forest

No previous matches with this referee.

Aston Villa2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W4 Mar 25A · Club Brugge KV3–10
W22 Oct 24H · Bologna2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.