Nottingham Forest
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Nottingham Forest45.2%fair odds 2.21
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.92
Aston Villa29.3%fair odds 3.41
Expected goals1.63 – 1.27total 2.91
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Aston Villa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Nottingham Forest ↓ · Aston Villa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Nottingham Forest goals, columns Aston Villa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.35
- 2–19.3%10.78
- 1–08.3%12.02
- 2–07.3%13.73
- 1–27.2%13.80
- 0–16.4%15.71
- 0–06.1%16.47
- 2–25.9%16.92
- 3–15.0%19.81
- 0–24.4%22.53
Winning margin
9.9%
Nottingham Forest by 3+
fair 10.09
13.8%
Nottingham Forest by 2
fair 7.22
21.4%
Nottingham Forest by 1
fair 4.66
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.92
16.6%
Aston Villa by 1
fair 6.02
8.4%
Aston Villa by 2
fair 11.85
4.3%
Aston Villa by 3+
fair 23.47
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Nottingham Forest goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Aston Villa goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest win | 45.2% | 45.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Aston Villa win | 29.3% | 28.9% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 53.8% | +1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.6% | 57.1% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Nottingham Forest | 1.63 | 1.60 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Aston Villa | 1.27 | 1.23 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Nottingham Forest win45.2%2.21
- Draw25.5%3.92
- Aston Villa win29.3%3.41
- Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw70.7%1.41
- Double chance Nottingham Forest or Aston Villa74.5%1.34
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw54.8%1.82
- Draw no bet Nottingham Forest60.7%1.65
- Draw no bet Aston Villa39.3%2.54
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.06
- Over 1.579.2%1.26
- Over 2.555.5%1.80
- Over 3.533.2%3.01
- Over 4.516.9%5.91
- Under 1.520.8%4.82
- Under 2.544.5%2.25
- Under 3.566.8%1.50
Both teams to score
- Yes58.6%1.71
- No41.4%2.41
- Yes and over 2.546.6%2.15
- Nottingham Forest win and yes23.3%4.29
- Draw and yes19.4%5.14
- Aston Villa win and yes15.8%6.32
Team goals
- Nottingham Forest over 0.580.4%1.24
- Nottingham Forest over 1.548.5%2.06
- Nottingham Forest over 2.522.5%4.45
- Aston Villa over 0.572.0%1.39
- Aston Villa over 1.536.4%2.75
- Aston Villa over 2.513.7%7.30
- Nottingham Forest clean sheet28.0%3.58
- Aston Villa clean sheet19.6%5.11
- Nottingham Forest win to nil21.9%4.57
- Aston Villa win to nil13.5%7.42
Handicap
- Nottingham Forest −1.523.7%4.21
- Nottingham Forest −2.59.9%10.09
- Aston Villa +1.576.3%1.31
- Aston Villa +2.590.1%1.11
- Aston Villa −1.512.7%7.88
- Nottingham Forest +1.587.3%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored24
Favourite won54.2%
Avg chance given to result38.1%
1X2 Brier0.602
Over 2.5 called right45.8%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 37.5% | 66.7% |
| 40–50% | 7 | 44.7% | 28.6% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 53.1% | 57.1% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 62.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 16 of 24 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5552 | 0.5553 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.6% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 62.5% | 62.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 16 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Bologna 1–3 Aston Villa24·26·50
- ✗FC Porto 1–1 Nottingham Forest45·27·28
- ✓SC Freiburg 3–0 Celta Vigo37·28·35
- ✗SC Braga 1–1 Real Betis41·28·31
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- ✗AS Roma 3–4 Bologna51·27·22
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 24 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.