Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Nottingham Forest
17th · 25 pts · 23 played
LLWDW
1–1Full time
Crystal Palace
15th · 28 pts · 23 played
DLDLL
Our take
Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had 2.8 days of rest, Crystal Palace 7 and had to travel 175 km.
Away travel175 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1
Nottingham Forest52%
Draw24%
Crystal Palace25%
Nottingham Forest46%
Draw26%
Crystal Palace27%
Nottingham Forest50%
Draw24%
Crystal Palace26%
Nottingham Forest44%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace31%
Nottingham Forest51%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace25%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeTony Harrington
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 83
Team strength
Nottingham ForestCrystal Palace
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
68
AttackIn forecast
64
74
DefenceIn forecast
54
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCrystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestCrystal Palace
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.04
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.22
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.53
52%
Scored inContext
65%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
11.87
ShotsContext
11.52
3.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.91
32%
On target shareContext
34%
7.52
Shots in the boxContext
8.68
63%
Box shareContext
73%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.24
12.74
Shots allowedContext
11.61
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.36
4.62
BlocksContext
3.05
2.73
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.05
64%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
425
PassesContext
376
351
Accurate passesContext
290
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.00
FoulsContext
10.09
12.05
Fouls sufferedContext
9.13
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
1.91
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.63
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.90
ShotsContext
11.40
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
34%
On target shareContext
30%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
59%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
1.80
OffsidesContext
3.20
12.00
Shots allowedContext
11.80
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
4.20
BlocksContext
3.13
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
62%
Save rateContext
60%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
441
PassesContext
410
367
Accurate passesContext
320
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.70
11.20
FoulsContext
10.20
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
7.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,106 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Crystal Palace
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel175 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
Crystal Palace |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 175 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,106 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.3 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
34T. Aina
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
16N. Domínguez
10M. Gibbs-White
7C. Hudson-Odoi
19Igor Jesus
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
34C. Riad
5M. Lacroix
26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell
8J. Lerma
19W. Hughes
2D. Muñoz
11B. Johnson
7I. Sarr
10Yeremy Pino
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Crystal Palace
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Crystal Palace-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
1.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.55
Crystal Palace · Away
1.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-5
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Arsenal | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| West Ham | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Everton | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Manchester City | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Fulham | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Tottenham | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Wolves | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Brighton | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Liverpool | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Leeds | W 3–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Bournemouth | L 0–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| Chelsea | L 0–3 H | L 1–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Newcastle | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Sunderland | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Burnley | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 24 of 66 · 1.09 per game | 27 of 66 · 1.23 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Nottingham Forest wins5 draws0 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game0.86 – 0.57
Over 2.50%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 14%
- 24 Aug 2025Crystal Palace1–1Nottingham Forest
- 5 May 2025Crystal Palace1–1Nottingham Forest
- 21 Oct 2024Nottingham Forest1–0Crystal Palace
- 30 Mar 2024Nottingham Forest1–1Crystal Palace
- 7 Oct 2023Crystal Palace0–0Nottingham Forest
- 28 May 2023Crystal Palace1–1Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.22 | |
| Match goals | 2.48 | 2.26 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 48% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 48% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 48% | 35% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.40 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.35 | 3.91 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.74 | 5.04 | |
| Match total | 10.09 | 8.95 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 18/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 15/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 11/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.52 | 1.96 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.87 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 3.39 | 3.92 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 9/23 | 70% 16/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 5/23 | 57% 13/23 | |
| Nottingham Forest | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.30 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.20 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tony Harrington 83 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 3.71
Red cards0.12league 0.11
Cards 5+28%league 38%
Fouls21.2league 21.3
Penalties0.24league 0.20
Home wins42%league 45%
Nottingham Forest6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W6 Jan 26A · West Ham2–10
- L27 Sep 25H · Sunderland0–14
- D11 May 25H · Leicester2–23
- W29 Dec 24A · Everton2–01
- W30 Nov 24H · Ipswich1–01
Crystal Palace6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D1 Jan 26H · Fulham1–10
- W20 Sep 25A · West Ham2–13
- L26 Jan 25H · Brentford1–22
- D14 Sep 24H · Leicester2–20
- W30 Jan 24H · Sheffield Utd3–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest23 games · scored 23 · conceded 34
4
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
9
31-45
7
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
12
76-90
Crystal Palace23 games · scored 24 · conceded 28
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
6
9
31-45
1
5
46-60
6
5
61-75
6
8
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
7
31-45
5
46-60
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
