Nottingham Forest vs Everton – 30 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 19 Tue, Dec 30 · 19:30 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest 17th · 18 pts · 18 played WLWLL

0–2Full time

Everton 12th · 25 pts · 18 played WWLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Nottingham Forest had 3.3 days of rest, Everton 3.2 and had to travel 132 km.

Away travel132 kmRest days3.3 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Nottingham Forest44%

Draw26%

Everton30%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.26

Nottingham Forest42%

Draw27%

Everton31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Nottingham Forest43%

Draw26%

Everton31%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.26

Nottingham Forest36%

Draw27%

Everton37%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.41

Nottingham Forest43%

Draw27%

Everton30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.22

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 198

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Everton

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

68 AttackIn forecast 61

74 DefenceIn forecast 66

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Everton

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.14

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

50% Scored inContext 61%

17% Clean sheetsContext 39%

12.00 ShotsContext 10.56

3.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.06

32% On target shareContext 29%

7.89 Shots in the boxContext 7.11

67% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 10%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.89 Shots allowedContext 13.33

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.12

4.56 BlocksContext 4.67

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.81

64% Save rateContext 66%

50% PossessionIn forecast 43%

435 PassesContext 378

361 Accurate passesContext 300

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.83 FoulsContext 10.28

12.12 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.72 Yellow cardsContext 2.06

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

70% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.80 ShotsContext 10.20

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.90

37% On target shareContext 28%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.70

66% Box shareContext 67%

12% ConversionContext 9%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.43

10.70 Shots allowedContext 12.80

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

4.78 BlocksContext 3.80

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

66% Save rateContext 66%

49% PossessionIn forecast 43%

421 PassesContext 379

348 Accurate passesContext 301

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.50 FoulsContext 9.90

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest3.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km350 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Everton

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel132 km131 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Everton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec	3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	132 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	350 km	131 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	3.7	4.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13John Victor(G)

35O. Zinchenko 5Murillo 31N. Milenković 3N. Williams

16N. Domínguez 8E. Anderson

7C. Hudson-Odoi 10M. Gibbs-White 21O. Hutchinson

19Igor Jesus

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 15J. O'Brien 6J. Tarkowski 2N. Patterson

37J. Garner 42T. Iroegbunam

7D. McNeil 34M. Röhl 20T. Dibling

11T. Barry

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Everton Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest+0.9 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Everton-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 1.11points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-5
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.67

Everton · Away 1.22points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-4
Scored: 0.78
Conceded: 1.11

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Nottingham Forest	Everton
Manchester City	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 A
Fulham	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Tottenham	W 3–0 H	L 0–3 H
Wolves	W 1–0 A	W 3–2 A
Brighton	L 0–2 H	W 2–0 H
Liverpool	W 3–0 A	L 1–2 A
Leeds	W 3–1 H	L 0–1 A
Manchester United	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Bournemouth	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 A
Chelsea	L 0–3 H	L 0–2 A
Newcastle	L 0–2 A	L 1–4 H
Sunderland	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Burnley	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 A
Arsenal	L 0–3 A	L 0–1 H
West Ham	L 0–3 H	D 1–1 H
Crystal Palace	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Points	15 of 48 · 0.94 per game	21 of 48 · 1.31 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Nottingham Forest wins2 draws4 Everton wins

Goals per game0.71 – 1.43 Over 2.529% Both scored29% Clean sheets14% · 57%

6 Dec 2025Everton3–0Nottingham Forest
12 Apr 2025Nottingham Forest0–1Everton
29 Dec 2024Everton0–2Nottingham Forest
21 Apr 2024Everton2–0Nottingham Forest
2 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest0–1Everton
5 Mar 2023Nottingham Forest2–2Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.56	1.11
Match goals	2.56	2.11	2.81
Over 1.5	83%	67%
Over 2.5	56%	33%	53%
Over 3.5	17%	11%
Both teams scored	33%	33%	57%
Clean sheets	17%	39%
Failed to score	50%	39%
Games	18	18

	Nottingham Forest	Everton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.90
Conceded per game	1.00	1.10
Match goals	2.60	2.00	2.81
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	30%	53%
Over 3.5	10%	10%
Both teams scored	30%	20%	57%
Clean sheets	40%	50%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	4.44
Corners conceded	4.56	4.94
Match total	9.89	9.38	9.89
Over 8.5	78% 14/18	61% 11/18
Over 9.5	61% 11/18	44% 8/18
Over 10.5	39% 7/18	39% 7/18
Cards
Cards	1.72	2.11
Opponent cards	2.06	1.72
Match total	3.78	3.83	3.87
Over 3.5	50% 9/18	56% 10/18
Over 4.5	28% 5/18	44% 8/18

	Nottingham Forest	Everton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	5.20
Corners conceded	4.22	5.00
Match total	9.89	10.20	9.89
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.80
Opponent cards	2.30	1.60
Match total	4.20	3.40	3.87
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 198 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 3.72

Red cards0.14league 0.11

Cards 5+33%league 38%

Fouls22.4league 21.5

Penalties0.27league 0.19

Home wins42%league 48%

Nottingham Forest11 with this referee

Record4-1-6 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.6 Pens for · against2 · 1

L30 Nov 25H · Brighton0–20
W21 Dec 24A · Brentford2–04
L4 Dec 24A · Manchester City0–34
W14 Sep 24A · Liverpool1–04
D17 Aug 24H · Bournemouth1–11

Everton23 with this referee

Record8-7-8 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.7 Pens for · against4 · 0 Reds6

W30 Aug 25A · Wolves3–21
W18 May 25H · Southampton2–01
D12 Feb 25H · Liverpool2–24
W19 Oct 24A · Ipswich2–01
L19 May 24A · Arsenal1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.