Nottingham Forest vs FC Midtjylland – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 20:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest 21st · 1 pts · 1 played D

2–3Full time

FC Midtjylland 8th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.

Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 45). Nottingham Forest had 5.1 days of rest, FC Midtjylland 8.1 and had to travel 742 km.

Away travel742 kmRest days5.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d3 · 1

Nottingham Forest56%

Draw23%

FC Midtjylland20%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.04

Nottingham Forest56%

Draw24%

FC Midtjylland20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99

Nottingham Forest57%

Draw24%

FC Midtjylland20%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.02

Nottingham Forest49%

Draw25%

FC Midtjylland26%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.17

Nottingham Forest56%

Draw24%

FC Midtjylland20%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.02

Over 2.5 56% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 91

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

FC Midtjylland

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

68 AttackIn forecast 37

74 DefenceIn forecast 42

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Midtjylland

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

FC Midtjylland

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.45 xGVia Att/Def —

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext —

60% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 60%

12.60 ShotsContext 14.89

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.78

33% On target shareContext 46%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.86

70% Box shareContext 59%

9% ConversionContext 16%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.33

10.90 Shots allowedContext 10.33

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88

3.43 BlocksContext 2.56

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38

64% Save rateContext 90%

54% PossessionIn forecast 50%

465 PassesContext 412

400 Accurate passesContext 341

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.81 Team ratingContext 7.06

10.90 FoulsContext 12.44

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.89

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,779 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Midtjylland

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel742 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	FC Midtjylland
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Sep	8.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	742 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,779 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

3-4-3

26M. Sels(G)

5Murillo 4Morato 31N. Milenković

3N. Williams 6I. Sangaré 8E. Anderson 14D. Ndoye

7C. Hudson-Odoi 19Igor Jesus 10M. Gibbs-White

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

FC Midtjylland Confirmed XI

3-4-3

16E. Ólafsson(G)

22M. Bech 6M. Erlić 4O. Diao

55V. Bak Jensen 8P. Billing 21D. Castillo 43M. Mbabu

58D. Şimşir 10G. Cho 74Júnior Brumado

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Midtjylland Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest-0.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
FC Midtjylland+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home No home games yet this season.

FC Midtjylland · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	FC Midtjylland	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	4.00	2.00	2.93
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	56%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Nottingham Forest	FC Midtjylland	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.71	0.00
Match goals	2.71	2.00	2.93
Over 1.5	86%	100%
Over 2.5	57%	0%	56%
Over 3.5	29%	0%
Both teams scored	57%	0%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	43%	0%
Games	7	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	FC Midtjylland	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.00
Corners conceded	3.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	7.00	9.52
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	2.00
Match total	5.00	5.00	4.37
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Nottingham Forest	FC Midtjylland	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	5.22
Corners conceded	4.70	3.33
Match total	10.00	8.55	9.52
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.20
Opponent cards	2.30	1.60
Match total	4.30	3.80	4.37
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 91 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 4.19

Red cards0.26league 0.19

Cards 5+41%league 41%

Fouls25.1league 26.3

Penalties0.40league 0.30

Home wins45%league 37%

Nottingham Forest

No previous matches with this referee.

FC Midtjylland

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.