Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United – 1 Nov 2025

Premier League Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 1 · 15:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest 18th · 5 pts · 9 played DLLLL

2–2Full time

Manchester United 6th · 16 pts · 9 played WLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 60). Nottingham Forest had 6 days of rest, Manchester United 6.9 and had to travel 93 km.

Away travel93 kmRest days6 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Nottingham Forest36%

Draw26%

Manchester United38%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.50

Nottingham Forest35%

Draw27%

Manchester United38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.37

Nottingham Forest36%

Draw26%

Manchester United38%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.46

Nottingham Forest29%

Draw25%

Manchester United46%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.68

Nottingham Forest35%

Draw27%

Manchester United38%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.40

Over 2.5 56% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

RefereeDarren England

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 104

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Manchester United

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

68 AttackIn forecast 72

74 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Manchester United

0.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67

1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.56

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.49 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

33% Scored inContext 78%

0% Clean sheetsContext 11%

11.11 ShotsContext 15.00

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.22

34% On target shareContext 35%

7.22 Shots in the boxContext 10.22

66% Box shareContext 68%

5% ConversionContext 11%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.56

13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.11

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

4.00 BlocksContext 2.50

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

65% Save rateContext 63%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

488 PassesContext 433

416 Accurate passesContext 348

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.11 FoulsContext 9.78

11.89 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11

1.89 Yellow cardsContext 1.22

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.96

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

-0.69 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

40% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.60 ShotsContext 16.00

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

37% On target shareContext 36%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

65% Box shareContext 66%

6% ConversionContext 11%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.90

12.50 Shots allowedContext 10.60

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.78 BlocksContext 2.56

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

58% Save rateContext 64%

53% PossessionIn forecast 52%

478 PassesContext 449

409 Accurate passesContext 366

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.96

12.50 FoulsContext 9.80

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km507 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Manchester United

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel93 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Oct	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	93 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	507 km	99 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.1	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Sels(G)

3N. Williams 5Murillo 31N. Milenković 37N. Savona

8E. Anderson 12Douglas Luiz

7C. Hudson-Odoi 10M. Gibbs-White 14D. Ndoye

19Igor Jesus

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 4M. de Ligt 15L. Yoro

2Diogo Dalot 8Bruno Fernandes 18Casemiro 16A. Diallo

10Matheus Cunha 19B. Mbeumo

30B. Šeško

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest+0.1 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Manchester United+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.00

Manchester United · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Nottingham Forest	Manchester United
Chelsea	L 0–3 H	W 2–1 H
Sunderland	L 0–1 H	W 2–0 H
Burnley	D 1–1 A	W 3–2 H
Arsenal	L 0–3 A	L 0–1 H
Brentford	W 3–1 H	L 1–3 A
Points	4 of 15 · 0.80 per game	9 of 15 · 1.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Nottingham Forest wins0 draws4 Manchester United wins

Goals per game1.14 – 1.71 Over 2.557% Both scored43% Clean sheets14% · 43%

1 Apr 2025Nottingham Forest1–0Manchester United
7 Dec 2024Manchester United2–3Nottingham Forest
28 Feb 2024Nottingham Forest0–1Manchester United
30 Dec 2023Nottingham Forest2–1Manchester United
26 Aug 2023Manchester United3–2Nottingham Forest
16 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest0–2Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	0.56	1.67
Conceded per game	1.89	1.56
Match goals	2.44	3.22	2.93
Over 1.5	89%	89%
Over 2.5	44%	67%	56%
Over 3.5	11%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	11%
Failed to score	67%	22%
Games	9	9

	Nottingham Forest	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.67
Conceded per game	2.00	1.56
Match goals	2.70	3.22	2.93
Over 1.5	90%	89%
Over 2.5	50%	67%	56%
Over 3.5	20%	33%
Both teams scored	30%	67%	60%
Clean sheets	10%	11%
Failed to score	60%	22%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	3.78
Corners conceded	5.00	4.78
Match total	9.67	8.56	9.84
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.89	1.33
Opponent cards	1.78	2.67
Match total	3.67	4.00	3.66
Over 3.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 4.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9

	Nottingham Forest	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.80
Corners conceded	5.80	4.60
Match total	10.80	8.40	9.84
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.40
Opponent cards	1.80	2.70
Match total	3.80	4.10	3.66
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Darren England 104 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.22league 3.56

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+41%league 39%

Fouls22.3league 21.9

Penalties0.29league 0.20

Home wins44%league 50%

Nottingham Forest6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

L13 Sep 25A · Arsenal0–31
L1 May 25H · Brentford0–23
W7 Dec 24A · Manchester United3–22
D16 Mar 24A · Luton1–12
L20 Jan 24A · Brentford2–33

Manchester United3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

W26 Feb 25H · Ipswich3–25
L7 Dec 24H · Nottingham Forest2–30
W11 Dec 21A · Norwich1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.