OFI
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
OFI8.0%fair odds 12.44
Draw13.5%fair odds 7.42
Bayer Leverkusen78.5%fair odds 1.27
Expected goals0.89 – 2.94total 3.83
Likeliest score0–29.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayer Leverkusen
Baseline: average Bundesliga opponent
Attack Uplift
+29%
Expected goals
Baseline2.27Forecast2.94
Conceding Risk
−38%
Expected goals conceded
Baseline1.44Forecast0.89
Clean Sheet
+17.5 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline23.6%Forecast41.1%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| OFI ↓ · Bayer Leverkusen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 3.2 |
| 1 | 1.6 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are OFI goals, columns Bayer Leverkusen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–29.4%10.64
- 0–39.2%10.87
- 1–28.4%11.96
- 1–38.2%12.22
- 0–46.8%14.80
- 0–16.1%16.39
- 1–46.0%16.64
- 1–16.0%16.68
- 0–54.0%25.21
- 2–23.7%26.89
Winning margin
0.6%
OFI by 3+
fair 170.96
1.9%
OFI by 2
fair 52.47
5.5%
OFI by 1
fair 18.03
13.5%
Draw
fair 7.42
19.0%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 5.26
20.8%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 4.81
38.7%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 2.58
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
8%1
16%2
20%3
19%4
34%5+
OFI goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
5%0
16%1
23%2
22%3
34%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OFI win | 8.0% | 8.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 13.5% | 14.2% | -0.8 pp |
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 78.5% | 77.1% | +1.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 73.5% | 72.0% | +1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.1% | 55.9% | +0.2 pp |
| Expected goals OFI | 0.89 | 0.89 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 2.94 | 2.84 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- OFI win8.0%12.44
- Draw13.5%7.42
- Bayer Leverkusen win78.5%1.27
- Double chance OFI or draw21.5%4.65
- Double chance OFI or Bayer Leverkusen86.5%1.16
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw92.0%1.09
- Draw no bet OFI9.3%10.77
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen90.7%1.10
Goals
- Over 0.597.5%1.03
- Over 1.589.8%1.11
- Over 2.573.5%1.36
- Over 3.553.2%1.88
- Over 4.533.7%2.97
- Under 1.510.2%9.78
- Under 2.526.5%3.78
- Under 3.546.8%2.14
Both teams to score
- Yes56.1%1.78
- No43.9%2.28
- Yes and over 2.550.1%2.00
- OFI win and yes5.2%19.18
- Draw and yes11.0%9.10
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes39.9%2.51
Team goals
- OFI over 0.558.9%1.70
- OFI over 1.522.4%4.47
- OFI over 2.56.1%16.36
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.594.7%1.06
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.579.1%1.26
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.556.2%1.78
- OFI clean sheet5.3%18.85
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet41.1%2.43
- OFI win to nil2.8%35.41
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil38.6%2.59
Handicap
- OFI −1.52.5%40.15
- OFI −2.50.6%170.96
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.597.5%1.03
- Bayer Leverkusen +2.599.4%1.01
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.559.5%1.68
- OFI +1.540.5%2.47
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won66.7%
Avg chance given to result46.2%
1X2 Brier0.484
Over 2.5 called right63.9%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 39.4% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 44.1% | 58.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 54.5% | 70.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4838 | 0.5043 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.2% | 47.3% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 63.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 18 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.