UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 17:45 Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Heraklion
OFI 18th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Bayer Leverkusen 2nd · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites.

Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayer Leverkusen. OFI have 6.9 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 4.1 and have to travel 2,271 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel2,271 kmRest days6.9 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 3
OFI8%
Draw13%
Bayer Leverkusen78%
Expected goals 0.89 – 2.94
OFI12%
Draw20%
Bayer Leverkusen68%
Expected goals 0.82 – 2.19
OFI8%
Draw13%
Bayer Leverkusen78%
Expected goals 0.89 – 2.94
OFI5%
Draw10%
Bayer Leverkusen84%
Expected goals 0.79 – 3.29
OFI9%
Draw14%
Bayer Leverkusen77%
Expected goals 0.89 – 2.84
Over 2.5 74% Both score 56% Likeliest score 0–2
EloLambda forecast, updated 40 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heraklion)
21°CClear
  • Precipitation 0%
  • Wind 21 km/h
  • Humidity 70%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for OFI and Bayer Leverkusen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

OFIBayer Leverkusen
21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79
21 Current StrengthIn forecast 79
18 AttackIn forecast 87
25 DefenceIn forecast 79
— Form indexContext 94
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

OFI

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack+29%
Defense risk−38%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

OFIBayer Leverkusen
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.00
— xGVia Att/Def 3.56
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.72
— Goals minus xGContext -0.56
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 100%
5.50 ShotsContext 19.50
2.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.00
36% On target shareContext 46%
3.00 Shots in the boxContext 14.50
53% Box shareContext 73%
27% ConversionContext 15%
2.00 OffsidesContext 3.00
23.00 Shots allowedContext 7.50
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
6.00 BlocksContext 2.00
6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
86% Save rateContext 100%
33% PossessionIn forecast 59%
263 PassesContext 597
173 Accurate passesContext 535
66% Pass accuracyContext 90%
6.60 Team ratingContext 7.40
9.50 FoulsContext 15.50
18.00 Fouls sufferedContext 7.50
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
0.66 xGVia Att/Def 2.35
1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25
+0.84 Goals minus xGContext +0.05
80% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 40%
6.13 ShotsContext 18.50
2.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60
41% On target shareContext 36%
4.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.30
59% Box shareContext 71%
20% ConversionContext 13%
1.71 OffsidesContext 1.89
18.00 Shots allowedContext 12.20
6.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56
4.80 BlocksContext 3.10
5.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
86% Save rateContext 63%
45% PossessionIn forecast 58%
373 PassesContext 537
290 Accurate passesContext 470
78% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.82 Team ratingContext 7.06
11.10 FoulsContext 11.90
15.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

OFI
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km5,240 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 54 · 3 pts vs 2.6 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Rennes1–20.6 xPts
  • W17 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim2–00.9 xPts
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel2,271 km1,699 km in 14d
Schedule load40%High
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
OFI Bayer Leverkusen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10High · 40
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct4.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,271 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways5,240 km1,699 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 12 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one14.12.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

OFI Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Rennes (A) 1–2, 15 Oct
31N. Christogeorgos(G)
2K. Krizmanić 43D. Nikolaou 15A. Poungouras
3N. Athanasiou 41A. Bouchalakis 14T. Androutsos 24L. Dickmann
18T. Nuss 19K. Kodro 11T. Fountas
Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
OFI No reported absences
Bayer Leverkusen No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • OFI+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Bayer Leverkusen+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

OFI · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
Bayer Leverkusen · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

OFIBayer LeverkusenForecast
Scored per game 1.503.00
Conceded per game 1.000.00
Match goals 2.503.00 3.83
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%50% 74%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 50%0% 56%
Clean sheets 50%100%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
OFIBayer LeverkusenForecast
Scored per game 2.002.40
Conceded per game 0.501.30
Match goals 2.503.70 3.83
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%70% 74%
Over 3.5 0%60%
Both teams scored 25%60% 56%
Clean sheets 75%40%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games410

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

OFIBayer LeverkusenLeague
Corners
Corners won3.505.50
Corners conceded10.503.00
Match total14.008.509.76
Over 8.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 9.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Over 10.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards2.001.00
Opponent cards2.500.50
Match total4.501.503.76
Over 3.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Over 4.550% 1/20% 0/2
OFIBayer LeverkusenLeague
Corners
Corners won3.256.70
Corners conceded7.633.50
Match total10.8810.209.76
Over 8.588% 7/860% 6/10
Over 9.575% 6/840% 4/10
Over 10.550% 4/840% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.801.20
Opponent cards2.801.80
Match total4.603.003.76
Over 3.5100% 10/1040% 4/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

OFI2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1 2 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen2 games · scored 6 · conceded 0
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
OFI10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3 3 0-15
2 1 16-30
3 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 6 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

View all fixtures →
Lech Poznan Sunderland Oct 2217:45 Juventus Rennes Oct 2217:45 Dinamo Zagreb NEC Nijmegen Oct 2217:45 Sturm Graz Marseille Oct 2217:45 Ferencvarosi TC Torreense Oct 2217:45 OFI Bayer Leverkusen Oct 2217:45 Union St. Gilloise Hapoel Beer Sheva Oct 2217:45 Ararat-Armenia AZ Alkmaar Oct 2217:45 Bournemouth AC Milan Oct 2220:00 1899 Hoffenheim Lyon Oct 2220:00 Celtic Celta Vigo Oct 2220:00 Lillestrom Real Sociedad Oct 2220:00 Jagiellonia Anderlecht Oct 2220:00 Besiktas Crystal Palace Oct 2220:00 Olympiakos Piraeus Sparta Praha Oct 2220:00 Plzen Levski Sofia Oct 2220:00 Omonia Nicosia Benfica Oct 2220:00 Celje Red Bull Salzburg Oct 2220:00