OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
OH Leuven
14th · 19 pts · 18 played
WLLDW
First leg2–1
0–2Full time
Cercle Brugge
15th · 13 pts · 18 played
LLDLL
Our take
OH Leuven were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. OH Leuven had 8.9 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 8.1 and had to travel 110 km.
Away travel110 kmRest days8.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
OH Leuven44%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge29%
OH Leuven45%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge28%
OH Leuven44%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge29%
OH Leuven37%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge35%
OH Leuven45%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge28%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichiel Allaerts
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.09
- Matches 11
Team strength
OH LeuvenCercle Brugge
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
17
AttackIn forecast
24
30
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenCercle Brugge
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.61
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
78%
Scored inContext
72%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.28
ShotsContext
13.00
4.53
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.35
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.78
65%
Box shareContext
75%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.65
OffsidesContext
2.76
11.72
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
2.71
BlocksContext
3.29
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
69%
Save rateContext
64%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
332
PassesContext
383
256
Accurate passesContext
297
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.85
16.06
FoulsContext
10.56
11.06
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.89
Yellow cardsContext
1.72
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.00
ShotsContext
14.10
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
40%
On target shareContext
31%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
59%
Box shareContext
77%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.44
OffsidesContext
3.44
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.70
BlocksContext
3.44
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
74%
Save rateContext
62%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
325
PassesContext
406
252
Accurate passesContext
322
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.80
16.40
FoulsContext
10.60
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km133 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel110 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 12 Dec | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 110 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 133 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
34R. Nyakossi
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
4B. Verstraete
14H. Teklab
10Y. Maziz
24Ł. Łakomy
27Óscar Gil
39S. Kaba
19C. Ikwuemesi
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1Warleson(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
3E. Utkus
66C. Ravych
15G. Magnée
28H. Van der Bruggen
37E. Diop
18P. Gerkens
6L. Agyekum
9S. Ngoura
17O. Adewumi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
1.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.22
Cercle Brugge · Away
0.88points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Genk | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Gent | W 4–0 H | L 2–4 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 A | W 4–1 H |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–5 A | L 0–2 A |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 H | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 16 of 51 · 0.94 per game | 13 of 51 · 0.76 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 OH Leuven wins0 draws2 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game1.67 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 8 Nov 2025Cercle Brugge1–2OH Leuven
- 16 Dec 2023OH Leuven1–2Cercle Brugge
- 7 Oct 2023Cercle Brugge3–2OH Leuven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.61 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.83 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 67% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 28% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| OH Leuven | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.35 | 4.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 5.12 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 9.94 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 9/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 8/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 7/17 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.94 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 1.56 | |
| Match total | 5.16 | 3.34 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 14/18 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 10/18 | 22% 4/18 | |
| OH Leuven | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 10.34 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.30 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michiel Allaerts 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.91league 3.74
Red cards0.18league 0.18
Cards 5+18%league 40%
Fouls21.9league 22.7
Penalties0.09league 0.30
Home wins27%league 42%
OH LeuvenNo previous matches with this referee.
Cercle Brugge2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D26 Jul 25A · Dender0–02
- W25 Nov 23H · AS Eupen2–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven18 games · scored 19 · conceded 27
3
4
0-15
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
Cercle Brugge18 games · scored 22 · conceded 29
1
3
0-15
2
5
16-30
9
8
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
6
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
