OH Leuven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
OH Leuven
14th · 19 pts · 18 played
WLLDW
First leg2–1
0–2Full time
Cercle Brugge
15th · 13 pts · 18 played
LLDLL
OH Leuven44.4%fair odds 2.25
Draw26.9%fair odds 3.72
Cercle Brugge28.8%fair odds 3.48
Expected goals1.50 – 1.16total 2.67
Likeliest score1–112.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| OH Leuven ↓ · Cercle Brugge → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are OH Leuven goals, columns Cercle Brugge goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%7.81
- 1–09.8%10.20
- 2–19.1%10.95
- 2–07.8%12.74
- 0–07.6%13.15
- 0–17.5%13.42
- 1–27.1%14.14
- 2–25.3%18.83
- 0–24.7%21.23
- 3–14.6%21.88
Winning margin
8.8%
OH Leuven by 3+
fair 11.35
13.5%
OH Leuven by 2
fair 7.39
22.0%
OH Leuven by 1
fair 4.54
26.9%
Draw
fair 3.72
16.9%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 5.91
8.1%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 12.31
3.7%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 26.85
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
OH Leuven goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Cercle Brugge goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven win | 44.4% | 45.1% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 26.9% | 26.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Cercle Brugge win | 28.8% | 28.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 50.6% | -0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 54.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Expected goals OH Leuven | 1.50 | 1.53 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 1.16 | 1.17 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- OH Leuven win44.4%2.25
- Draw26.9%3.72
- Cercle Brugge win28.8%3.48
- Double chance OH Leuven or draw71.2%1.40
- Double chance OH Leuven or Cercle Brugge73.1%1.37
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw55.6%1.80
- Draw no bet OH Leuven60.7%1.65
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge39.3%2.54
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.1%1.33
- Over 2.549.8%2.01
- Over 3.527.8%3.59
- Over 4.513.2%7.58
- Under 1.524.9%4.02
- Under 2.550.2%1.99
- Under 3.572.2%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.541.3%2.42
- OH Leuven win and yes20.7%4.82
- Draw and yes19.3%5.19
- Cercle Brugge win and yes14.1%7.10
Team goals
- OH Leuven over 0.577.7%1.29
- OH Leuven over 1.544.3%2.26
- OH Leuven over 2.519.2%5.22
- Cercle Brugge over 0.568.8%1.45
- Cercle Brugge over 1.532.4%3.09
- Cercle Brugge over 2.511.3%8.88
- OH Leuven clean sheet31.2%3.20
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet22.3%4.49
- OH Leuven win to nil23.6%4.23
- Cercle Brugge win to nil14.7%6.82
Handicap
- OH Leuven −1.522.4%4.47
- OH Leuven −2.58.8%11.35
- Cercle Brugge +1.577.6%1.29
- Cercle Brugge +2.591.2%1.10
- Cercle Brugge −1.511.9%8.44
- OH Leuven +1.588.1%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored151
Favourite won44.4%
Avg chance given to result37.7%
1X2 Brier0.624
Over 2.5 called right53.0%
BTTS called right53.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 27 | 38.2% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 77 | 44.9% | 33.8% |
| 50–60% | 31 | 54.7% | 61.3% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 64.7% | 84.6% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 74.4% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 113 of 151 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6303 | 0.6308 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.6% | 38.1% |
| Favourite won | 43.4% | 41.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 113 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Dender 1–5 Club Brugge KV20·24·55
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 151 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.