Olympiakos Piraeus
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Olympiakos Piraeus64.0%fair odds 1.56
Draw20.2%fair odds 4.95
Sparta Praha15.8%fair odds 6.33
Expected goals2.22 – 1.03total 3.25
Likeliest score2–19.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sparta Praha
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Olympiakos Piraeus ↓ · Sparta Praha → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Olympiakos Piraeus goals, columns Sparta Praha goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%10.16
- 2–09.6%10.42
- 1–19.3%10.73
- 1–08.2%12.25
- 3–17.3%13.72
- 3–07.1%14.07
- 2–25.0%19.82
- 1–24.5%22.02
- 0–04.4%22.97
- 4–14.1%24.68
Winning margin
22.1%
Olympiakos Piraeus by 3+
fair 4.52
19.3%
Olympiakos Piraeus by 2
fair 5.18
22.5%
Olympiakos Piraeus by 1
fair 4.44
20.2%
Draw
fair 4.95
10.1%
Sparta Praha by 1
fair 9.85
4.1%
Sparta Praha by 2
fair 24.32
1.5%
Sparta Praha by 3+
fair 64.89
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Olympiakos Piraeus goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
Sparta Praha goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos Piraeus win | 64.0% | 63.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 20.2% | 20.9% | -0.7 pp |
| Sparta Praha win | 15.8% | 16.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 60.3% | +2.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.7% | 55.8% | +1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Olympiakos Piraeus | 2.22 | 2.13 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Sparta Praha | 1.03 | 0.99 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Olympiakos Piraeus win64.0%1.56
- Draw20.2%4.95
- Sparta Praha win15.8%6.33
- Double chance Olympiakos Piraeus or draw84.2%1.19
- Double chance Olympiakos Piraeus or Sparta Praha79.8%1.25
- Double chance Sparta Praha or draw36.0%2.78
- Draw no bet Olympiakos Piraeus80.2%1.25
- Draw no bet Sparta Praha19.8%5.05
Goals
- Over 0.595.6%1.05
- Over 1.584.0%1.19
- Over 2.563.0%1.59
- Over 3.540.8%2.45
- Over 4.522.8%4.39
- Under 1.516.0%6.24
- Under 2.537.0%2.70
- Under 3.559.2%1.69
Both teams to score
- Yes57.7%1.73
- No42.3%2.36
- Yes and over 2.548.3%2.07
- Olympiakos Piraeus win and yes32.5%3.08
- Draw and yes15.8%6.31
- Sparta Praha win and yes9.3%10.73
Team goals
- Olympiakos Piraeus over 0.589.2%1.12
- Olympiakos Piraeus over 1.565.1%1.54
- Olympiakos Piraeus over 2.538.3%2.61
- Sparta Praha over 0.564.1%1.56
- Sparta Praha over 1.527.4%3.65
- Sparta Praha over 2.58.5%11.75
- Olympiakos Piraeus clean sheet35.9%2.79
- Sparta Praha clean sheet10.8%9.23
- Olympiakos Piraeus win to nil31.5%3.17
- Sparta Praha win to nil6.5%15.43
Handicap
- Olympiakos Piraeus −1.541.5%2.41
- Olympiakos Piraeus −2.522.1%4.52
- Sparta Praha +1.558.5%1.71
- Sparta Praha +2.577.9%1.28
- Sparta Praha −1.55.7%17.69
- Olympiakos Piraeus +1.594.3%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won66.7%
Avg chance given to result46.2%
1X2 Brier0.484
Over 2.5 called right63.9%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 39.4% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 44.1% | 58.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 54.5% | 70.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4838 | 0.5043 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.2% | 47.3% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 63.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 18 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.