UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 20:00 Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus 10th · 6 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Sparta Praha 11th · 4 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Olympiakos Piraeus are clear favourites.

Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 34). Olympiakos Piraeus have 7 days of rest, Sparta Praha 7.1 and have to travel 1,536 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel1,536 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Olympiakos Piraeus64%
Draw20%
Sparta Praha16%
Expected goals 2.22 – 1.03
Olympiakos Piraeus61%
Draw22%
Sparta Praha16%
Expected goals 1.95 – 0.91
Olympiakos Piraeus64%
Draw20%
Sparta Praha16%
Expected goals 2.22 – 1.03
Olympiakos Piraeus56%
Draw23%
Sparta Praha21%
Expected goals 1.98 – 1.15
Olympiakos Piraeus63%
Draw21%
Sparta Praha16%
Expected goals 2.13 – 0.99
Over 2.5 63% Both score 58% Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Piraeus)
19°CPartly cloudy
  • Precipitation 6%
  • Wind 3 km/h
  • Humidity 93%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Olympiakos Piraeus and Sparta Praha. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Olympiakos PiraeusSparta Praha
63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34
63 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
54 AttackIn forecast 33
68 DefenceIn forecast 34
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus

Attack—
Defense risk—

Sparta Praha

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Olympiakos PiraeusSparta Praha
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.67
0.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.83
100% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.00 ShotsContext 19.00
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.00
31% On target shareContext 42%
11.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
74% Box shareContext 54%
9% ConversionContext 13%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50
7.50 Shots allowedContext 9.50
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
— BlocksContext 2.50
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.00
100% Save rateContext 50%
52% PossessionIn forecast 55%
441 PassesContext 433
365 Accurate passesContext 377
83% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.96 Team ratingContext 7.00
10.50 FoulsContext 14.50
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
0.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.15
0.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36
-0.46 Goals minus xGContext +0.25
60% Scored inContext 70%
70% Clean sheetsContext 30%
17.10 ShotsContext 11.70
5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
30% On target shareContext 34%
10.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.89
61% Box shareContext 65%
6% ConversionContext 12%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.11
6.90 Shots allowedContext 11.50
2.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
3.00 BlocksContext 3.44
2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38
89% Save rateContext 77%
59% PossessionIn forecast 53%
488 PassesContext 449
392 Accurate passesContext 380
80% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.95 Team ratingContext 6.83
11.80 FoulsContext 11.90
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Olympiakos Piraeus
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,297 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 74 · 6 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W15 OctA · Marseille1–01.5 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Jagiellonia2–12.1 xPts
Sparta Praha
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,536 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 48 · 4 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Lillestrom1–11.7 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Ararat-Armenia4–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Olympiakos Piraeus Sparta Praha
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct7.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,536 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,297 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 10 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one13.913.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Olympiakos Piraeus Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Marseille (A) 1–0, 15 Oct
1S. Ortega(G)
70S. Onyemaechi 5L. Pirola 45P. Retsos 2E. Saliakas
32S. Hezze 15G. Puerta
20Jota Silva 22Chiquinho 10Gelson Martins
11R. Yaremchuk
Sparta Praha Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lillestrom (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
44J. Surovčík(G)
15V. Vitályos 6T. Guddal 19A. Ševínský 2M. Suchomel
20S. Mannsverk 18A. Irving
27E. Singhateh 38Hugo Sochurek 31M. Jurásek
14J. Braut Brunes

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Olympiakos Piraeus No reported absences
Sparta Praha No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Olympiakos Piraeus+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Sparta Praha+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Olympiakos Piraeus · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
Sparta Praha · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Olympiakos PiraeusSparta PrahaForecast
Scored per game 1.502.50
Conceded per game 0.501.00
Match goals 2.003.50 3.25
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%50% 63%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 50%100% 58%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
Olympiakos PiraeusSparta PrahaForecast
Scored per game 1.001.75
Conceded per game 0.751.50
Match goals 1.753.25 3.25
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%75% 63%
Over 3.5 0%25%
Both teams scored 50%75% 58%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 25%25%
Games44

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Olympiakos PiraeusSparta PrahaLeague
Corners
Corners won1.009.50
Corners conceded9.001.50
Match total10.0011.009.76
Over 8.5100% 1/150% 1/2
Over 9.5100% 1/150% 1/2
Over 10.50% 0/150% 1/2
Cards
Cards2.001.50
Opponent cards2.502.50
Match total4.504.003.76
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/250% 1/2
Olympiakos PiraeusSparta PrahaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.576.11
Corners conceded3.714.44
Match total9.2810.559.76
Over 8.557% 4/756% 5/9
Over 9.543% 3/756% 5/9
Over 10.529% 2/744% 4/9
Cards
Cards1.801.60
Opponent cards1.701.70
Match total3.503.303.76
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Olympiakos Piraeus2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Sparta Praha2 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
0-15
2 16-30
31-45
2 1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Olympiakos Piraeus10 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
0-15
1 1 16-30
3 31-45
2 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Sparta Praha10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1 0-15
4 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
4 4 61-75
1 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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