Omonia Nicosia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Omonia Nicosia16.2%fair odds 6.18
Draw19.9%fair odds 5.02
Benfica63.9%fair odds 1.57
Expected goals1.07 – 2.27total 3.35
Likeliest score1–29.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Benfica
Baseline: average Primeira Liga opponent
Attack Downlift
−1%
Expected goals
Baseline2.28Forecast2.27
Conceding Risk
0%
Expected goals conceded
Baseline1.07Forecast1.07
Clean Sheet
0.0 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline34.2%Forecast34.2%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Omonia Nicosia ↓ · Benfica → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Omonia Nicosia goals, columns Benfica goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.8%10.24
- 0–29.1%10.99
- 1–19.0%11.05
- 0–17.5%13.25
- 1–37.4%13.52
- 0–36.9%14.51
- 2–25.2%19.08
- 2–14.6%21.69
- 1–44.2%23.79
- 0–04.0%25.15
Winning margin
1.7%
Omonia Nicosia by 3+
fair 59.58
4.3%
Omonia Nicosia by 2
fair 23.41
10.2%
Omonia Nicosia by 1
fair 9.76
19.9%
Draw
fair 5.02
22.2%
Benfica by 1
fair 4.51
19.2%
Benfica by 2
fair 5.22
22.5%
Benfica by 3+
fair 4.44
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
25%5+
Omonia Nicosia goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Benfica goals
10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
20%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omonia Nicosia win | 16.2% | 16.9% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 19.9% | 20.9% | -0.9 pp |
| Benfica win | 63.9% | 62.2% | +1.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 62.2% | +2.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.5% | 58.0% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Omonia Nicosia | 1.07 | 1.05 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Benfica | 2.27 | 2.16 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Omonia Nicosia win16.2%6.18
- Draw19.9%5.02
- Benfica win63.9%1.57
- Double chance Omonia Nicosia or draw36.1%2.77
- Double chance Omonia Nicosia or Benfica80.1%1.25
- Double chance Benfica or draw83.8%1.19
- Draw no bet Omonia Nicosia20.2%4.95
- Draw no bet Benfica79.8%1.25
Goals
- Over 0.596.0%1.04
- Over 1.585.2%1.17
- Over 2.565.0%1.54
- Over 3.543.0%2.33
- Over 4.524.6%4.07
- Under 1.514.8%6.73
- Under 2.535.0%2.86
- Under 3.557.0%1.75
Both teams to score
- Yes59.5%1.68
- No40.5%2.47
- Yes and over 2.550.4%1.98
- Omonia Nicosia win and yes9.9%10.13
- Draw and yes15.9%6.27
- Benfica win and yes33.7%2.97
Team goals
- Omonia Nicosia over 0.565.8%1.52
- Omonia Nicosia over 1.529.1%3.43
- Omonia Nicosia over 2.59.4%10.61
- Benfica over 0.589.7%1.11
- Benfica over 1.566.3%1.51
- Benfica over 2.539.7%2.52
- Omonia Nicosia clean sheet10.3%9.71
- Benfica clean sheet34.2%2.93
- Omonia Nicosia win to nil6.3%15.81
- Benfica win to nil30.2%3.31
Handicap
- Omonia Nicosia −1.56.0%16.81
- Omonia Nicosia −2.51.7%59.58
- Benfica +1.594.0%1.06
- Benfica +2.598.3%1.02
- Benfica −1.541.7%2.40
- Omonia Nicosia +1.558.3%1.71
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won66.7%
Avg chance given to result46.2%
1X2 Brier0.484
Over 2.5 called right63.9%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 39.4% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 44.1% | 58.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 54.5% | 70.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4838 | 0.5043 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.2% | 47.3% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 63.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 18 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.