Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica

UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 20:00 Neo GSP, Levkosía

Omonia Nicosia 6th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

VS— Compare

Benfica 3rd · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica are clear favourites.

Benfica are the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Omonia Nicosia. Omonia Nicosia have 7.1 days of rest, Benfica 7 and have to travel 3,764 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel3,764 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Omonia Nicosia16%

Draw20%

Benfica64%

Expected goals 1.07 – 2.27

Omonia Nicosia16%

Draw22%

Benfica62%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.98

Omonia Nicosia16%

Draw20%

Benfica64%

Expected goals 1.07 – 2.27

Omonia Nicosia12%

Draw17%

Benfica71%

Expected goals 0.96 – 2.55

Omonia Nicosia17%

Draw21%

Benfica62%

Expected goals 1.05 – 2.16

Over 2.5 65% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–2

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Levkosía)

19°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0%
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 83%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Omonia Nicosia

Benfica

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

33 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

34 AttackIn forecast 81

41 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext 85

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Omonia Nicosia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack−1%

Defense risk0%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Omonia Nicosia

Benfica

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

0.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

+0.77 Goals minus xGContext +1.38

100% Scored inContext 100%

100% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.50 ShotsContext 18.50

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

44% On target shareContext 30%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 12.50

42% Box shareContext 63%

16% ConversionContext 16%

1.00 OffsidesContext 2.50

15.50 Shots allowedContext 14.50

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

5.50 BlocksContext 2.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00

86% Save rateContext 91%

43% PossessionIn forecast 47%

454 PassesContext 477

385 Accurate passesContext 424

85% Pass accuracyContext 89%

7.22 Team ratingContext 7.38

6.50 FoulsContext 10.50

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 4.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.77

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.67

70% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.25 ShotsContext 18.13

5.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88

40% On target shareContext 32%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 13.00

60% Box shareContext 71%

9% ConversionContext 15%

1.25 OffsidesContext 2.17

13.25 Shots allowedContext 9.88

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

3.50 BlocksContext 2.56

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

69% Save rateContext 75%

46% PossessionIn forecast 60%

386 PassesContext 538

314 Accurate passesContext 472

81% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.67 Team ratingContext 7.16

9.71 FoulsContext 11.00

14.43 Fouls sufferedContext 15.70

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Omonia Nicosia WW

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km3,902 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

Form 73 · 6 pts vs 3.3 for an average club · +3.4 vs expected

W15 OctA · Celje3–01.3 xPts
W16 SepH · Celta Vigo1–01.3 xPts

Benfica WWLWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel3,764 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W15 OctH · Celtic4–12.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Guimaraes2–02.5 xPts
L20 SepA · FC Porto1–31.3 xPts
W16 SepA · AC Milan2–01.7 xPts
W13 SepH · GIL Vicente3–12.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Omonia Nicosia	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct	7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	3,764 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,902 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Omonia Nicosia Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Celje (A) 3–0, 15 Oct

40Fabiano(G)

29J. Balkovec 37Ľ. Šatka 5S. Coulibaly 93J. Duverne

14M. Marić 22M. Tankovic 74P. Andreou

7J. Montnor 99L. Diony 11Ewandro

Benfica Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Celtic (H) 4–1, 15 Oct

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 2C. Lenglet 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah

36João Palhinha 8F. Aursnes

25G. Prestianni 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio

22J. Durán

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Omonia Nicosia No reported absences

Benfica No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Omonia Nicosia+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Omonia Nicosia · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Benfica · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Omonia Nicosia	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	3.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.50
Match goals	2.00	3.50	3.35
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	100%	50%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	Omonia Nicosia	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	2.70
Conceded per game	0.63	0.80
Match goals	2.00	3.50	3.35
Over 1.5	38%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	80%	65%
Over 3.5	13%	60%
Both teams scored	25%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Omonia Nicosia	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.50
Corners conceded	6.00	7.50
Match total	10.50	12.00	9.76
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	100% 2/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	100% 2/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.00	4.00
Opponent cards	2.50	0.50
Match total	3.50	4.50	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2

	Omonia Nicosia	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	6.38
Corners conceded	4.86	4.25
Match total	9.15	10.63	9.76
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.40
Opponent cards	3.10	2.20
Match total	5.30	4.60	3.76
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.