Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 40). Osasuna had 9.3 days of rest, Levante 9.1 and had to travel 386 km.
Away travel386 kmRest days9.3 · 9.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Osasuna50%
Draw27%
Levante24%
Osasuna50%
Draw26%
Levante25%
Osasuna49%
Draw27%
Levante24%
Osasuna42%
Draw28%
Levante30%
Osasuna51%
Draw25%
Levante24%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 7
Team strength
Osasuna
Levante
50
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
50
AttackIn forecast
55
50
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaLevante
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
57%
Scored inContext
71%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.14
ShotsContext
9.71
3.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.29
32%
On target shareContext
34%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.85
67%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.64
12.64
Shots allowedContext
16.86
4.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
3.50
BlocksContext
4.50
3.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.64
74%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
385
PassesContext
332
310
Accurate passesContext
257
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.57
FoulsContext
13.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
10.50
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
30%
On target shareContext
33%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
69%
Box shareContext
73%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.43
12.60
Shots allowedContext
15.10
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.50
BlocksContext
3.60
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
65%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
386
PassesContext
367
312
Accurate passesContext
291
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.30
FoulsContext
12.60
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest9.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,018 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Levante
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel386 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.3La Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 9.1La Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 386 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,018 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 11.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
22F. Boyomo
24Catena
41Íñigo Arguibide
23Abel Bretones
10Aimar Oroz
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
21Víctor Muñoz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
3A. Matturro
14Jorge Cabello
22J. Toljan
7Roger Brugué
16K. Arriaga
12Unai Vencedor
24Carlos Álvarez
9Iván Romero
21E. Eyong
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Levante
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Levante-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
1.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.33
Levante · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Getafe | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Valencia | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 1–4 H |
| Points | 12 of 30 · 1.20 per game | 6 of 30 · 0.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Osasuna wins1 draws1 Levante wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 19 Mar 2022Osasuna3–1Levante
- 5 Dec 2021Levante0–0Osasuna
- 14 Feb 2021Levante0–1Osasuna
- 27 Sep 2020Osasuna1–3Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 93% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 57% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Osasuna | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 7.25 | 10.58 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 4/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 2/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/12 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.21 | 2.21 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 4.35 | 4.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 11/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 9/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Osasuna | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 7.34 | 10.44 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.70 | 4.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 4.13
Red cards0.14league 0.29
Cards 5+57%league 46%
Fouls25.4league 24.7
Penalties0.00league 0.34
Home wins29%league 47%
Osasuna1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D3 Nov 25A · Oviedo0–00
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna13 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
3
0-15
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
5
46-60
5
61-75
4
4
76-90
Levante14 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
3
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
1
7
76-90
Osasuna9 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
0-15
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
46-60
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
