Osasuna
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Osasuna49.5%fair odds 2.02
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
Levante23.7%fair odds 4.22
Expected goals1.55 – 1.00total 2.55
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Levante
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Osasuna ↓ · Levante → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Osasuna goals, columns Levante goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.85
- 1–011.5%8.69
- 2–09.4%10.62
- 2–19.4%10.66
- 0–08.5%11.80
- 0–17.2%13.95
- 1–26.0%16.58
- 3–04.9%20.56
- 3–14.8%20.63
- 2–24.7%21.40
Winning margin
10.6%
Osasuna by 3+
fair 9.44
15.3%
Osasuna by 2
fair 6.54
23.6%
Osasuna by 1
fair 4.23
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
15.0%
Levante by 1
fair 6.68
6.3%
Levante by 2
fair 15.82
2.4%
Levante by 3+
fair 41.51
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Osasuna goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Levante goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna win | 49.5% | 50.7% | -1.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 25.2% | +1.6 pp |
| Levante win | 23.7% | 24.1% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 53.3% | -6.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.3% | 55.4% | -5.1 pp |
| Expected goals Osasuna | 1.55 | 1.70 | -0.15 |
| Expected goals Levante | 1.00 | 1.11 | -0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Osasuna win49.5%2.02
- Draw26.8%3.73
- Levante win23.7%4.22
- Double chance Osasuna or draw76.3%1.31
- Double chance Osasuna or Levante73.2%1.37
- Double chance Levante or draw50.5%1.98
- Draw no bet Osasuna67.6%1.48
- Draw no bet Levante32.4%3.09
Goals
- Over 0.591.5%1.09
- Over 1.572.9%1.37
- Over 2.546.8%2.14
- Over 3.525.2%3.96
- Over 4.511.5%8.68
- Under 1.527.1%3.68
- Under 2.553.2%1.88
- Under 3.574.8%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes50.3%1.99
- No49.7%2.01
- Yes and over 2.537.6%2.66
- Osasuna win and yes21.1%4.74
- Draw and yes18.3%5.46
- Levante win and yes10.9%9.13
Team goals
- Osasuna over 0.578.8%1.27
- Osasuna over 1.545.9%2.18
- Osasuna over 2.520.4%4.91
- Levante over 0.563.1%1.59
- Levante over 1.526.3%3.80
- Levante over 2.58.0%12.55
- Osasuna clean sheet36.9%2.71
- Levante clean sheet21.2%4.71
- Osasuna win to nil28.4%3.52
- Levante win to nil12.7%7.84
Handicap
- Osasuna −1.525.9%3.86
- Osasuna −2.510.6%9.44
- Levante +1.574.1%1.35
- Levante +2.589.4%1.12
- Levante −1.58.7%11.45
- Osasuna +1.591.3%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored151
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result41.8%
1X2 Brier0.566
Over 2.5 called right62.3%
BTTS called right54.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 37.8% | 45.0% |
| 40–50% | 70 | 44.3% | 47.1% |
| 50–60% | 26 | 54.3% | 61.5% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 64.4% | 63.2% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 74.8% | 85.7% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 81.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 120 of 151 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5631 | 0.5577 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.9% | 42.7% |
| Favourite won | 57.5% | 57.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 120 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Real Madrid 0–2 Celta Vigo71·18·11
- ✓Espanyol 1–0 Rayo Vallecano43·28·29
- ✗Valencia 1–1 Sevilla48·27·25
- ✓Elche 3–0 Girona46·27·27
- ✗Athletic Club 1–0 Atletico Madrid26·27·47
- ✓Real Betis 3–5 Barcelona25·26·48
- ✓Alaves 1–0 Real Sociedad39·28·33
- ✓Villarreal 2–0 Getafe58·25·17
- ✗Oviedo 0–0 Mallorca31·28·41
- ✓Athletic Club 0–3 Real Madrid21·25·54
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 151 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.