Panathinaikos vs Plzen – 19 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 19 · 20:00 Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Athens

Panathinaikos

2–2Full time

Plzen

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Plzen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Plzen. Panathinaikos had 21 days of rest, Plzen 21 and had to travel 1,544 km.

Away travel1,544 kmRest days21 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0

Panathinaikos34%

Draw28%

Plzen38%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.35

Panathinaikos37%

Draw27%

Plzen36%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.33

Panathinaikos35%

Draw28%

Plzen37%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.29

Panathinaikos28%

Draw27%

Plzen46%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.52

Panathinaikos33%

Draw28%

Plzen39%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.35

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Athens)

No weather data yet

RefereeNick Walsh

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 71

Team strength

Panathinaikos

Plzen

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

49 Current StrengthIn forecast 49

48 AttackIn forecast 54

50 DefenceIn forecast 43

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Panathinaikos

Attack—

Defense risk—

Plzen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Panathinaikos

Plzen

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 0.87

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

70% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.90 ShotsContext 13.67

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

34% On target shareContext 34%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 8.89

67% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.75 OffsidesContext 1.86

10.60 Shots allowedContext 12.89

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11

3.11 BlocksContext 4.22

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

74% Save rateContext 89%

54% PossessionIn forecast 43%

467 PassesContext 317

382 Accurate passesContext 244

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.94

13.90 FoulsContext 13.44

16.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Panathinaikos

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Plzen

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,544 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Panathinaikos	Plzen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan	21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,544 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Panathinaikos Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40A. Lafont(G)

5A. Touba 14E. Palmer-Brown 15S. Ingason

77G. Kyriakopoulos 8R. Luz Sanches 11A. Bakasetas 2D. Calabria

72M. Pantović 20V. Taborda

7A. Tetteh

+13 more reported missing outside this XI

Plzen Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

44F. Wiegele(G)

14Merchas Doski 5K. Spáčil 40S. Dweh

9D. Višinský 17P. Hrošovský 6L. Červ 99Amar Memić

20J. Panoš 19C. Souaré

70S. Lawal

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Panathinaikos Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Plzen Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Panathinaikos-1.3 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Plzen+1.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Panathinaikos · Home No home games yet this season.

Plzen · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Panathinaikos wins1 draws0 Plzen wins

Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%

11 Dec 2025Panathinaikos0–0Plzen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Panathinaikos	Plzen	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.62
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	49%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	54%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Panathinaikos	Plzen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.00
Conceded per game	1.13	0.38
Match goals	2.50	1.38	2.62
Over 1.5	75%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	25%	49%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	75%	38%	54%
Clean sheets	25%	63%
Failed to score	13%	38%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Panathinaikos	Plzen	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.75
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.75
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Panathinaikos	Plzen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.78
Corners conceded	3.40	5.33
Match total	7.90	10.11	8.75
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.70
Opponent cards	3.00	2.90
Match total	5.00	5.60	2.75
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nick Walsh 71 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.54league 2.75

Red cards0.25league 0.00

Cards 5+54%league 0%

Fouls25.3league 20.3

Penalties0.30league 0.00

Home wins45%league 0%

Panathinaikos1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W6 Nov 25A · Malmo FF1–04

Plzen

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.