PAOK vs Celta Vigo – 19 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 19 · 17:45 Stadio Toumbas, Thessaloníki

PAOK

1–2Full time

Celta Vigo

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Celta Vigo. PAOK had 20.9 days of rest, Celta Vigo 5.2 and had to travel 2,630 km.

Away travel2,630 kmRest days20.9 · 5.2Matches / 14d0 · 2

PAOK35%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo37%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.28

PAOK40%

Draw27%

Celta Vigo33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

PAOK36%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo35%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.25

PAOK29%

Draw28%

Celta Vigo44%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.43

PAOK34%

Draw29%

Celta Vigo37%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.23

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Thessaloníki)

No weather data yet

RefereeIvan Kružliak

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 32

Team strength

PAOK

Celta Vigo

55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 61

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

45 AttackIn forecast 36

55 DefenceIn forecast 61

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PAOK

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PAOK

Celta Vigo

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.49

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

70% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.90 ShotsContext 10.00

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

41% On target shareContext 42%

9.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

70% Box shareContext 63%

15% ConversionContext 15%

2.57 OffsidesContext 2.50

8.90 Shots allowedContext 11.20

2.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.25 BlocksContext 3.80

1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

63% Save rateContext 71%

56% PossessionIn forecast 48%

465 PassesContext 437

394 Accurate passesContext 371

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.50 FoulsContext 11.20

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PAOK

Rest20.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Celta Vigo

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel2,630 km1,801 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PAOK	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan	5.2La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,630 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,801 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PAOK Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

99A. Tsiftsis(G)

32G. Taylor 6D. Lovren 4A. Vogliacco 3J. Kenny

27M. Ozdoev 2M. Camara

11Taison 20C. Zafeiris 14A. Živković

19A. Jeremejeff

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 32Javi Rodríguez

3Óscar Mingueza 6I. Moriba 16Miguel Román 5Sergio Carreira

19W. Swedberg 7Borja Iglesias 10Iago Aspas

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PAOK Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Celta Vigo Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

PAOK-1.4 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Celta Vigo+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

PAOK · Home No home games yet this season.

Celta Vigo · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 PAOK wins0 draws1 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game1.00 – 3.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

2 Oct 2025Celta Vigo3–1PAOK

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PAOK	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.52
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	46%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	PAOK	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	2.13	1.50
Conceded per game	1.75	1.00
Match goals	3.88	2.50	2.52
Over 1.5	88%	70%
Over 2.5	63%	60%	46%
Over 3.5	63%	30%
Both teams scored	63%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	38%	40%
Failed to score	13%	20%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PAOK	Celta Vigo
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	PAOK	Celta Vigo
Corners
Corners won	5.67	3.60
Corners conceded	3.67	4.40
Match total	9.34	8.00
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.00
Opponent cards	2.60	2.20
Match total	4.50	4.20
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ivan Kružliak 32 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.59

Red cards0.16

Cards 5+59%

Fouls24.6

Penalties0.22

Home wins53%

PAOK1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L21 Aug 25A · HNK Rijeka0–15

Celta Vigo

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.