Paris FC vs Estac Troyes

Ligue 1 Gameweek 20 Sat, Feb 13 · 16:00 Stade Jean Bouin, Paris

Paris FC 3rd · 14 pts · 7 played WDWLW

VS— Compare

Estac Troyes 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel142 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Paris FC—%

Draw—%

Estac Troyes—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Paris)

Forecast from 29 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Estac Troyes 5 Losses in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Paris FC

Estac Troyes

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 12

46 AttackIn forecast 12

38 DefenceIn forecast 19

73 Form indexContext 7

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris FC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Estac Troyes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris FC

Estac Troyes

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.29

2.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

-0.40 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

57% Scored inContext 43%

43% Clean sheetsContext 14%

14.43 ShotsContext 14.29

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

35% On target shareContext 21%

9.43 Shots in the boxContext 10.43

63% Box shareContext 73%

12% ConversionContext 5%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.33

9.57 Shots allowedContext 12.43

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

3.00 BlocksContext 3.00

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

71% Save rateContext 55%

52% PossessionIn forecast 39%

575 PassesContext 359

508 Accurate passesContext 287

88% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.52

13.71 FoulsContext 12.29

10.57 Fouls sufferedContext 12.71

2.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

70% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.40 ShotsContext 12.10

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

35% On target shareContext 25%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

65% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 7%

2.10 OffsidesContext 2.56

9.90 Shots allowedContext 13.90

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.67 BlocksContext 3.10

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

69% Save rateContext 63%

50% PossessionIn forecast 39%

524 PassesContext 351

457 Accurate passesContext 279

87% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.61

12.40 FoulsContext 11.10

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris FC WDWLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km794 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 73 · 10 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W18 OctH · Rennes4–31.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Lorient0–11.4 xPts
W19 SepH · Strasbourg2–11.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Lyon0–01.4 xPts
W6 SepA · Marseille3–20.8 xPts

Estac Troyes LLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel142 km1,131 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L17 OctH · Lens1–30.6 xPts
L11 OctH · Marseille0–20.9 xPts
L19 SepA · Angers0–20.9 xPts
L13 SepA · Lille0–20.4 xPts
L6 SepH · Strasbourg2–61.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris FC	Estac Troyes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 6 Feb	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 6 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	142 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	794 km	1,131 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris FC Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Rennes (H) 4–3, 18 Oct

1K. Trapp(G)

14H. Traoré 42D. Coppola 31Samir Sophian Chergui 17Adama Camara

33P. Lees-Melou 20M. Lopez

15L. Koleosho 7P. Pagis 10I. Kebbal

9L. Sinayoko

Estac Troyes Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lens (H) 1–3, 17 Oct

33P. Beach(G)

5P. Gozzi 4M. Diaz 6A. Monfray 2L. Maronnier

29D. Karim 8M. Diop

23T. Nkada 17A. Mille 10M. Ifnaoui

20R. Ripart

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris FC Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Estac Troyes Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Paris FC · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 1.00

Estac Troyes · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Paris FC	Estac Troyes
Lorient	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Strasbourg	W 2–1 H	L 2–6 H
Marseille	W 3–2 A	L 0–2 H
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Paris FC wins1 draws0 Estac Troyes wins

Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%

22 Aug 2026Estac Troyes0–0Paris FC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Paris FC	Estac Troyes
Scored per game	1.71	0.71
Conceded per game	1.00	2.29
Match goals	2.71	3.00
Over 1.5	57%	86%
Over 2.5	57%	43%
Over 3.5	29%	29%
Both teams scored	43%	43%
Clean sheets	43%	14%
Failed to score	43%	57%
Games	7	7

	Paris FC	Estac Troyes
Scored per game	1.90	0.71
Conceded per game	1.00	2.29
Match goals	2.90	3.00
Over 1.5	70%	86%
Over 2.5	70%	43%
Over 3.5	30%	29%
Both teams scored	50%	43%
Clean sheets	40%	14%
Failed to score	30%	57%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris FC	Estac Troyes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	6.50
Corners conceded	4.17	2.50
Match total	8.17	9.00	9.63
Over 8.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	17% 1/6	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	2.29	1.57
Opponent cards	1.57	1.29
Match total	3.86	2.86	3.47
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7

	Paris FC	Estac Troyes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.33
Corners conceded	4.11	4.78
Match total	8.11	10.11	9.63
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.40
Opponent cards	1.20	1.60
Match total	3.20	3.00	3.47
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.