Estac Troyes vs Lille

Ligue 1 Gameweek 19 Sat, Feb 6 · 16:00 Stade de l’Aube, Troyes

Estac Troyes 17th · 4 pts · 7 played LLLLL

VS— Compare

Lille 4th · 14 pts · 7 played WWLWD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel266 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 3

Real contextStrength only

Estac Troyes—%

Draw—%

Lille—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Troyes)

Forecast from 22 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Streak Estac Troyes 5 Losses in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Estac Troyes

Lille

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

12 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

12 AttackIn forecast 42

19 DefenceIn forecast 60

7 Form indexContext 39

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estac Troyes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estac Troyes

Lille

0.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43

2.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

43% Scored inContext 100%

14% Clean sheetsContext 57%

14.29 ShotsContext 12.00

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.57

21% On target shareContext 46%

10.43 Shots in the boxContext 8.14

73% Box shareContext 67%

5% ConversionContext 12%

2.33 OffsidesContext 3.00

12.43 Shots allowedContext 15.00

4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.57

3.00 BlocksContext 3.50

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86

55% Save rateContext 80%

39% PossessionIn forecast 51%

359 PassesContext 480

287 Accurate passesContext 417

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.52 Team ratingContext 6.99

12.29 FoulsContext 11.57

12.71 Fouls sufferedContext 14.43

1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

60% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.10 ShotsContext 10.50

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

25% On target shareContext 42%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

64% Box shareContext 63%

7% ConversionContext 11%

2.56 OffsidesContext 3.11

13.90 Shots allowedContext 14.80

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.10 BlocksContext 4.00

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

63% Save rateContext 69%

39% PossessionIn forecast 51%

351 PassesContext 480

279 Accurate passesContext 417

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.10 FoulsContext 10.90

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estac Troyes LLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,131 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L17 OctH · Lens1–30.6 xPts
L11 OctH · Marseille0–20.9 xPts
L19 SepA · Angers0–20.9 xPts
L13 SepA · Lille0–20.4 xPts
L6 SepH · Strasbourg2–61.1 xPts

Lille WLWLD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel266 km3,521 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

D17 OctH · Stade Brestois 291–11.8 xPts
L13 OctA · Arsenal0–30.4 xPts
W10 OctH · LE Havre1–02.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Nice1–21.9 xPts
W13 SepH · Estac Troyes2–02.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estac Troyes	Lille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 30 Jan	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 30 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	266 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,131 km	3,521 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estac Troyes Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lens (H) 1–3, 17 Oct

33P. Beach(G)

5P. Gozzi 4M. Diaz 6A. Monfray 2L. Maronnier

29D. Karim 8M. Diop

23T. Nkada 17A. Mille 10M. Ifnaoui

20R. Ripart

Lille Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Stade Brestois 29 (H) 1–1, 17 Oct

12O. Gill(G)

15R. Perraud 23T. Nianzou 3N. Ngoy 38Maxima Goffi

17N. Mukau 21B. André

7D. Bakwa 10H. Haraldsson 8E. Mbappé

9O. Giroud

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estac Troyes Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Lille Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Estac Troyes · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.75

Lille · Away 2.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Estac Troyes	Lille
Angers	L 0–2 A	W 2–0 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Estac Troyes wins1 draws3 Lille wins

Goals per game1.20 – 2.00 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

13 Sep 2026Lille2–0Estac Troyes
3 Jun 2023Estac Troyes1–1Lille
15 Jan 2023Lille5–1Estac Troyes
1 May 2022Estac Troyes3–0Lille
4 Dec 2021Lille2–1Estac Troyes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estac Troyes	Lille
Scored per game	0.71	1.43
Conceded per game	2.29	0.71
Match goals	3.00	2.14
Over 1.5	86%	71%
Over 2.5	43%	29%
Over 3.5	29%	14%
Both teams scored	43%	43%
Clean sheets	14%	57%
Failed to score	57%	0%
Games	7	7

	Estac Troyes	Lille
Scored per game	0.71	1.20
Conceded per game	2.29	1.30
Match goals	3.00	2.50
Over 1.5	86%	80%
Over 2.5	43%	40%
Over 3.5	29%	20%
Both teams scored	43%	40%
Clean sheets	14%	40%
Failed to score	57%	20%
Games	7	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estac Troyes	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	3.83
Corners conceded	2.50	4.83
Match total	9.00	8.66	9.63
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	1.57	1.29
Opponent cards	1.29	1.71
Match total	2.86	3.00	3.47
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	14% 1/7

	Estac Troyes	Lille	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	4.00
Corners conceded	4.78	4.50
Match total	10.11	8.50	9.63
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.50
Opponent cards	1.60	1.90
Match total	3.00	3.40	3.47
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.