Ligue 1 Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 17 · 16:00 Parc des Princes, Paris
Paris Saint Germain 2nd · 14 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Lille 4th · 14 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel205 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Paris Saint Germain—%
Draw—%
Lille—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Paris)

Forecast from 2 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Paris Saint Germain and Lille. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Paris Saint GermainLille
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
89 Current StrengthIn forecast 54
91 AttackIn forecast 42
83 DefenceIn forecast 60
96 Form indexContext 39
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lille

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris Saint GermainLille
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.43
1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71
2.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.42
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
-0.65 Goals minus xGContext +0.01
100% Scored inContext 100%
14% Clean sheetsContext 57%
20.57 ShotsContext 12.00
7.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.57
35% On target shareContext 46%
11.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.14
56% Box shareContext 67%
10% ConversionContext 12%
3.20 OffsidesContext 3.00
10.86 Shots allowedContext 15.00
4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.57
2.17 BlocksContext 3.50
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86
83% Save rateContext 80%
68% PossessionIn forecast 51%
708 PassesContext 480
637 Accurate passesContext 417
90% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.03 Team ratingContext 6.99
5.71 FoulsContext 11.57
11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 14.43
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
2.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.24
1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.04
100% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
21.50 ShotsContext 10.50
7.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89
36% On target shareContext 42%
12.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
56% Box shareContext 63%
12% ConversionContext 11%
3.33 OffsidesContext 3.11
11.90 Shots allowedContext 14.80
4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
3.22 BlocksContext 4.00
4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90
78% Save rateContext 69%
67% PossessionIn forecast 51%
702 PassesContext 480
632 Accurate passesContext 417
90% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.07 Team ratingContext 6.86
7.00 FoulsContext 10.90
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris Saint Germain
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Strasbourg3–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Manchester City4–20.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Le Mans3–12.6 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Marseille2–12.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Stade Brestois 291–02.1 xPts
Lille
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel205 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Stade Brestois 291–11.8 xPts
  • L13 OctA · Arsenal0–30.4 xPts
  • W10 OctH · LE Havre1–02.2 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Nice1–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Estac Troyes2–02.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Paris Saint Germain Lille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Apr7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km205 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris Saint Germain Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Strasbourg (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne 21L. Hernández 6I. Zabarnyi 33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo 27Dro Fernández 87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia 9Ferran Torres 11M. Akliouche
Lille Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Stade Brestois 29 (H) 1–1, 17 Oct
12O. Gill(G)
15R. Perraud 23T. Nianzou 3N. Ngoy 38Maxima Goffi
17N. Mukau 21B. André
7D. Bakwa 10H. Haraldsson 8E. Mbappé
9O. Giroud

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Paris Saint Germain Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lille Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Paris Saint Germain · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50
Lille · Away 2.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentParis Saint GermainLille
Stade Brestois 29 W 1–0 A D 1–1 H
Points3 of 3 · 3.00 per game1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

7 Paris Saint Germain wins3 draws0 Lille wins
Goals per game3.30 – 1.20 Over 2.580% Both scored90% Clean sheets10% · 0%
  • 28 Aug 2026Lille2–2Paris Saint Germain
  • 16 Jan 2026Paris Saint Germain3–0Lille
  • 5 Oct 2025Lille1–1Paris Saint Germain
  • 1 Mar 2025Paris Saint Germain4–1Lille
  • 1 Sep 2024Lille1–3Paris Saint Germain
  • 10 Feb 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Lille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Paris Saint GermainLilleForecast
Scored per game 2.001.43
Conceded per game 1.290.71
Match goals 3.292.14
Over 1.5 86%71%
Over 2.5 86%29%
Over 3.5 57%14%
Both teams scored 86%43%
Clean sheets 14%57%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games77
Paris Saint GermainLilleForecast
Scored per game 2.501.20
Conceded per game 1.401.30
Match goals 3.902.50
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 90%40%
Over 3.5 60%20%
Both teams scored 90%40%
Clean sheets 10%40%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Paris Saint GermainLilleLeague
Corners
Corners won4.753.83
Corners conceded3.254.83
Match total8.008.669.63
Over 8.550% 2/450% 3/6
Over 9.525% 1/433% 2/6
Over 10.50% 0/417% 1/6
Cards
Cards1.001.29
Opponent cards2.431.71
Match total3.433.003.47
Over 3.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 4.529% 2/714% 1/7
Paris Saint GermainLilleLeague
Corners
Corners won5.574.00
Corners conceded4.144.50
Match total9.718.509.63
Over 8.571% 5/750% 4/8
Over 9.543% 3/738% 3/8
Over 10.529% 2/713% 1/8
Cards
Cards1.001.50
Opponent cards2.301.90
Match total3.303.403.47
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Paris Saint Germain7 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 46-60
5 2 61-75
6 1 76-90
Lille7 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
2 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
2 1 61-75
3 2 76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
3 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
2 4 46-60
7 3 61-75
7 1 76-90
Lille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 46-60
2 4 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Angers Lyon Apr 1716:00 Paris Saint Germain Lille Apr 1716:00 Monaco Strasbourg Apr 1716:00 Rennes Estac Troyes Apr 1716:00 Toulouse Paris FC Apr 1716:00 Stade Brestois 29 Le Mans Apr 1716:00 Auxerre Lorient Apr 1716:00 LE Havre Marseille Apr 1716:00 Lens Nice Apr 1716:00