Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AC Milan were slight favourites.
AC Milan were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 29). Parma had 6.1 days of rest, AC Milan 6 and had to travel 116 km.
Away travel116 kmRest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Parma21%
Draw26%
AC Milan53%
Parma22%
Draw25%
AC Milan53%
Parma21%
Draw27%
AC Milan52%
Parma16%
Draw24%
AC Milan60%
Parma22%
Draw25%
AC Milan54%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 64
Team strength
Parma
AC Milan
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
20
AttackIn forecast
72
33
DefenceIn forecast
69
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAC Milan
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaAC Milan
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
40%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.20
ShotsContext
13.50
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
28%
On target shareContext
34%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
60%
Box shareContext
68%
5%
ConversionContext
11%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.78
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.90
BlocksContext
3.44
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
73%
Save rateContext
86%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
315
PassesContext
466
240
Accurate passesContext
409
76%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.40
FoulsContext
9.80
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
40%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.20
ShotsContext
13.50
2.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
28%
On target shareContext
34%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
60%
Box shareContext
68%
5%
ConversionContext
11%
1.57
OffsidesContext
1.78
14.00
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.90
BlocksContext
3.44
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
73%
Save rateContext
86%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
315
PassesContext
466
240
Accurate passesContext
409
76%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.40
FoulsContext
9.80
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km737 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AC Milan
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel116 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
AC Milan |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 116 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 737 km | 90 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.7 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
3A. Ndiaye
5L. Valenti
15E. Delprato
18M. Løvik
22O. Sørensen
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
27Sascha Britschgi
9Mateo Pellegrino
32P. Cutrone
AC Milan
Confirmed XI
16M. Maignan(G)
31S. Pavlović
46M. Gabbia
5K. De Winter
2P. Estupiñán
4S. Ricci
14L. Modrić
19Y. Fofana
56A. Saelemaekers
10Rafael Leão
18C. Nkunku
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AC Milan
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- AC Milan+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
1.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.20
AC Milan · Away
2.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Parma | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lecce | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Juventus | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 2 of 18 · 0.33 per game | 11 of 18 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Parma wins0 draws1 AC Milan wins
Goals per game2.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 26 Jan 2025AC Milan3–2Parma
- 24 Aug 2024Parma2–1AC Milan
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.20 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Parma | AC Milan | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.20 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.11 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.51 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.00 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Parma | AC Milan | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.11 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.51 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.00 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 3.91
Red cards0.20league 0.13
Cards 5+52%league 39%
Fouls26.3league 25.9
Penalties0.42league 0.28
Home wins33%league 37%
Parma4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L3 May 25H · Como0–11
- L9 Feb 25A · Cagliari1–22
- L22 Dec 24A · AS Roma0–52
- D6 Oct 24A · Bologna0–01
AC Milan8 with this referee
Record5-1-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 4
- W1 Mar 24A · Lazio1–06
- W25 Nov 23H · Fiorentina1–01
- L4 Mar 23A · Fiorentina1–23
- L24 Jan 23A · Lazio0–42
- W19 Mar 22A · Cagliari1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma10 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
AC Milan10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
3
0-15
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
