Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were slight favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 31). Absences weigh more on Parma. Parma had 4 days of rest, Bologna 3.9 and had to travel 87 km.
Away travel87 kmRest days4 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
Parma26%
Draw27%
Bologna47%
Parma28%
Draw27%
Bologna45%
Parma27%
Draw28%
Bologna45%
Parma20%
Draw25%
Bologna54%
Parma27%
Draw26%
Bologna47%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Bonacina
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 6
Team strength
Parma
Bologna
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
20
AttackIn forecast
35
33
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaBologna
0.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.78
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
33%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
44%
9.44
ShotsContext
12.11
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
29%
On target shareContext
31%
6.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
58%
Box shareContext
60%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.11
Shots allowedContext
9.78
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
4.00
BlocksContext
3.14
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
77%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
324
PassesContext
439
251
Accurate passesContext
367
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.89
FoulsContext
13.44
13.11
Fouls sufferedContext
13.67
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
-0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
40%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.30
ShotsContext
13.10
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
34%
On target shareContext
36%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
60%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.89
12.90
Shots allowedContext
9.50
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.90
BlocksContext
2.86
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
73%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
334
PassesContext
453
261
Accurate passesContext
382
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.50
FoulsContext
14.50
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km737 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel87 km2,488 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 3.9Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 87 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 737 km | 2,488 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
27Sascha Britschgi
5L. Valenti
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
16L. Keita
8N. Estévez
24C. Ordoñez
10Adrián Bernabé
9Mateo Pellegrino
7A. Benedyczak
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
14T. Heggem
2E. Holm
4T. Pobega
8R. Freuler
11J. Rowe
21J. Odgaard
7R. Orsolini
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma-1.4 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Bologna+1.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Bologna · Away
1.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Como | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Genoa | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Lecce | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Cagliari | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 5 of 18 · 0.83 per game | 11 of 18 · 1.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Parma wins1 draws0 Bologna wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 50%
- 22 Feb 2025Parma2–0Bologna
- 6 Oct 2024Bologna0–0Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.44 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.78 | |
| Match goals | 1.44 | 2.22 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 56% | 56% | |
| Over 2.5 | 22% | 44% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 44% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Parma | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.44 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.44 | 2.40 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 56% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 22% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 30% | |
| Games | 9 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 5.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 8.26 | 8.78 | 8.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 2.22 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 3.56 | 5.11 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Parma | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 9.70 | 8.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 5.30 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Bonacina 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.17league 3.91
Red cards0.17league 0.13
Cards 5+17%league 39%
Fouls24.3league 25.9
Penalties0.33league 0.29
Home wins50%league 36%
ParmaNo previous matches with this referee.
BolognaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma9 games · scored 4 · conceded 9
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Bologna9 games · scored 13 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
0-15
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
