Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Parma were slight favourites.
Parma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 29). Absences weigh more on Cagliari. Parma had 5.1 days of rest, Cagliari 6 and had to travel 627 km.
Away travel627 kmRest days5.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Parma46%
Draw29%
Cagliari25%
Parma48%
Draw26%
Cagliari26%
Parma45%
Draw29%
Cagliari26%
Parma39%
Draw30%
Cagliari31%
Parma48%
Draw27%
Cagliari25%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
RefereeLuca Massimi
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 31
Team strength
Parma
Cagliari
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
20
AttackIn forecast
31
33
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaCagliari
0.73
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
1.19
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
54%
Scored inContext
62%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
11.15
ShotsContext
9.92
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.54
26%
On target shareContext
33%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
57%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.17
14.15
Shots allowedContext
13.04
4.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
4.24
BlocksContext
3.92
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.68
70%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
355
PassesContext
387
284
Accurate passesContext
315
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.42
FoulsContext
14.54
13.73
Fouls sufferedContext
14.54
1.62
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
60%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
10.10
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
24%
On target shareContext
29%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
51%
Box shareContext
61%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.30
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.40
BlocksContext
4.00
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
68%
Save rateContext
74%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
404
PassesContext
424
336
Accurate passesContext
352
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.10
FoulsContext
13.80
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km232 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel627 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Feb | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 627 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 232 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
5L. Valenti
37Mariano Troilo
15E. Delprato
16L. Keita
14E. Valeri
24C. Ordoñez
10Adrián Bernabé
27Sascha Britschgi
7Gabriel Strefezza
9Mateo Pellegrino
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
15J. Rodríguez
22A. Dossena
32Zé Pedro
33A. Obert
25I. Sulemana
27J. Liteta
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
9S. Kılıçsoy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Cagliari-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
1.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-6
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 1.38
Cagliari · Away
1.00points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.54
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Bologna | W 1–0 AL 1–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Juventus | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lecce | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Fiorentina | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Lazio | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Udinese | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Como | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 32 of 75 · 1.28 per game | 26 of 75 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Parma wins0 draws3 Cagliari wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 13 Sep 2025Cagliari2–0Parma
- 9 Feb 2025Cagliari2–1Parma
- 30 Sep 2024Parma2–3Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.73 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.19 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 1.92 | 2.42 | 2.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 46% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 46% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 46% | 38% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Parma | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.30 | 2.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 8.71 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 39% 9/23 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 8/23 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 7/23 | 17% 4/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.77 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.15 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 3.92 | 4.23 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 17/26 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 10/26 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Parma | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 9.40 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Massimi 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 3.77
Red cards0.29league 0.20
Cards 5+45%league 37%
Fouls26.2league 25.3
Penalties0.26league 0.32
Home wins48%league 38%
ParmaNo previous matches with this referee.
Cagliari1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D6 Dec 21H · Torino1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma26 games · scored 19 · conceded 31
2
6
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
6
8
76-90
Cagliari26 games · scored 28 · conceded 35
5
0-15
2
6
16-30
8
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
6
7
61-75
8
9
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
