Parma vs Cremonese – 21 Mar 2026

Serie A Gameweek 30 Sat, Mar 21 · 14:00 Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

Parma 12th · 34 pts · 29 played WWDDL

0–2Full time

Cremonese 18th · 24 pts · 29 played DLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Parma were slight favourites.

Parma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cremonese. Parma had 7.8 days of rest, Cremonese 4.8 and had to travel 44 km.

Away travel44 kmRest days7.8 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Parma52%

Draw27%

Cremonese21%

Expected goals 1.54 – 0.87

Parma57%

Draw24%

Cremonese19%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.98

Parma52%

Draw27%

Cremonese21%

Expected goals 1.51 – 0.86

Parma45%

Draw29%

Cremonese26%

Expected goals 1.37 – 0.97

Parma54%

Draw25%

Cremonese21%

Expected goals 1.71 – 0.97

Over 2.5 43% Both score 46% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Parma)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.16
Matches 69

Team strength

Parma

Cremonese

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

28 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

20 AttackIn forecast 16

33 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Parma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Cremonese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Parma

Cremonese

0.72 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.79

1.24 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.52

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.61

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

55% Scored inContext 52%

34% Clean sheetsContext 24%

10.90 ShotsContext 8.90

3.15 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.21

26% On target shareContext 35%

6.37 Shots in the boxContext 5.70

55% Box shareContext 59%

7% ConversionContext 9%

1.70 OffsidesContext 2.29

14.00 Shots allowedContext 16.52

4.21 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.48

4.14 BlocksContext 4.86

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.14

70% Save rateContext 73%

45% PossessionIn forecast 45%

362 PassesContext 367

292 Accurate passesContext 285

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.72

10.72 FoulsContext 13.55

13.59 Fouls sufferedContext 12.69

1.62 Yellow cardsContext 1.97

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.30

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

0.66 xGVia Att/Def 0.83

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.77

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.53

60% Scored inContext 30%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.80 ShotsContext 10.00

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.22

25% On target shareContext 29%

5.56 Shots in the boxContext 7.11

47% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 3%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.29

13.50 Shots allowedContext 16.90

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.10

4.10 BlocksContext 4.80

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

64% Save rateContext 66%

48% PossessionIn forecast 46%

406 PassesContext 361

340 Accurate passesContext 279

84% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.65

11.30 FoulsContext 14.40

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Parma

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km690 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Cremonese

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel44 km1,702 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Parma	Cremonese
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 5
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Mar	4.8Serie A 2025-2026, 16 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	44 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	690 km	1,702 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14.2	15

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Parma Confirmed XI

3-4-3

31Z. Suzuki(G)

5L. Valenti 37Mariano Troilo 39A. Circati

14E. Valeri 16L. Keita 22O. Sørensen 27Sascha Britschgi

17J. Ondrejka 9Mateo Pellegrino 7Gabriel Strefezza

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Cremonese Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1E. Audero(G)

3G. Pezzella 5S. Luperto 15M. Bianchetti 24F. Terracciano

27J. Vandeputte 29Y. Maleh 33A. Grassi 7A. Zerbin

99A. Sanabria 90F. Bonazzoli

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Parma Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Cremonese Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Parma+0.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Cremonese-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Parma · Home 1.00points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 3-5-6
Scored: 0.79
Conceded: 1.36

Cremonese · Away 0.80points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-9
Scored: 0.73
Conceded: 1.53

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Parma	Cremonese
Torino	L 1–4 AW 2–1 H	L 0–1 A
Fiorentina	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	L 1–4 HL 0–1 A
Cagliari	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 H
AC Milan	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H	L 0–2 HW 2–1 A
Verona	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A
Bologna	W 1–0 AL 1–3 H	W 3–1 A
Juventus	L 1–4 HL 0–2 A	L 0–5 AL 1–2 H
Atalanta	L 0–4 AD 1–1 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Genoa	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A
Napoli	D 0–0 A	L 0–2 H
Lecce	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H
Inter	L 0–2 H	L 0–2 HL 1–4 A
Sassuolo	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 AW 3–2 H
Lazio	L 0–1 H	D 0–0 A
Pisa	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Udinese	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 H
AS Roma	L 1–2 A	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H
Como	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 A
Points	33 of 84 · 1.18 per game	23 of 84 · 0.82 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Parma wins1 draws0 Cremonese wins

Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%

21 Sep 2025Cremonese0–0Parma

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Parma	Cremonese	Forecast
Scored per game	0.72	0.79
Conceded per game	1.24	1.52
Match goals	1.97	2.31	2.40
Over 1.5	59%	69%
Over 2.5	34%	41%	43%
Over 3.5	17%	24%
Both teams scored	41%	45%	46%
Clean sheets	34%	24%
Failed to score	45%	48%
Games	29	29

	Parma	Cremonese	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	0.30
Conceded per game	1.40	2.10
Match goals	2.10	2.40	2.40
Over 1.5	50%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	43%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	46%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	40%	70%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Parma	Cremonese	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.46
Corners conceded	4.40	6.57
Match total	8.40	10.03	8.74
Over 8.5	40% 10/25	68% 19/28
Over 9.5	32% 8/25	46% 13/28
Over 10.5	28% 7/25	29% 8/28
Cards
Cards	1.76	2.00
Opponent cards	2.17	1.41
Match total	3.93	3.41	3.93
Over 3.5	66% 19/29	38% 11/29
Over 4.5	38% 11/29	21% 6/29

	Parma	Cremonese	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.70
Corners conceded	3.75	6.90
Match total	8.75	10.60	8.74
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.70
Opponent cards	2.00	0.50
Match total	3.80	2.20	3.93
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	0% 0/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 69 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.04league 3.75

Red cards0.30league 0.19

Cards 5+33%league 36%

Fouls24.1league 25.2

Penalties0.16league 0.30

Home wins38%league 39%

Parma3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D14 Jan 26A · Napoli0–03
L10 May 25A · Empoli1–22
D19 Oct 24A · Como1–12

Cremonese1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D20 Oct 25H · Udinese1–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.