Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Parma were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Parma. Parma had 3.8 days of rest, Genoa 5.8 and had to travel 118 km.
Away travel118 kmRest days3.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Parma42%
Draw29%
Genoa29%
Parma44%
Draw27%
Genoa29%
Parma43%
Draw29%
Genoa29%
Parma35%
Draw29%
Genoa36%
Parma43%
Draw27%
Genoa30%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
RefereeLuca Pairetto
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 67
Team strength
Parma
Genoa
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
20
AttackIn forecast
23
33
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaGenoa
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.45
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
50%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
10.60
ShotsContext
10.55
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.85
26%
On target shareContext
37%
6.47
Shots in the boxContext
6.74
58%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.20
Shots allowedContext
13.25
4.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.94
4.21
BlocksContext
5.00
3.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
74%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
338
PassesContext
357
265
Accurate passesContext
282
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.50
FoulsContext
13.35
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
1.65
Yellow cardsContext
2.05
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.00
ShotsContext
10.00
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
25%
On target shareContext
45%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
56%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.63
14.40
Shots allowedContext
15.90
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.56
BlocksContext
5.70
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
76%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
361
PassesContext
343
290
Accurate passesContext
273
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.93
9.60
FoulsContext
12.40
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,708 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Genoa
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel118 km239 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Jan | 5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 12 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 118 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,708 km | 239 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
14E. Valeri
5L. Valenti
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
16L. Keita
8N. Estévez
10Adrián Bernabé
17J. Ondrejka
9Mateo Pellegrino
21G. Oristanio
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
3Aarón Martín
77M. Ellertsson
32M. Frendrup
17R. Malinovskyi
20S. Sabelli
9Vítinha
29L. Colombo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Genoa+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
0.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 0.70
- Conceded
- 1.30
Genoa · Away
1.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Lecce | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Fiorentina | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Lazio | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Udinese | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Verona | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bologna | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Como | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Cagliari | L 0–2 A | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Juventus | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 21 of 57 · 1.11 per game | 18 of 57 · 0.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Parma wins1 draws2 Genoa wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.67
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets33% · 100%
- 19 Oct 2025Genoa0–0Parma
- 12 Jan 2025Genoa1–0Parma
- 4 Nov 2024Parma0–1Genoa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.45 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.55 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 65% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Parma | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.10 | 2.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.39 | 2.94 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 6.06 | |
| Match total | 8.22 | 9.00 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 39% 7/18 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 6/18 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 6/18 | 19% 3/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.45 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.60 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 13/20 | 85% 17/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 8/20 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Parma | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 2.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 6.60 | |
| Match total | 8.45 | 8.80 | 8.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.20 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Pairetto 67 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 3.81
Red cards0.25league 0.17
Cards 5+52%league 36%
Fouls25.8league 25.7
Penalties0.40league 0.30
Home wins36%league 37%
Parma1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Nov 25A · Verona2–13
Genoa4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W28 Jan 24H · Lecce2–10
- L17 Dec 21A · Lazio1–33
- D5 Nov 21A · Empoli2–24
- W12 Sep 21A · Cagliari3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma20 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
Genoa20 games · scored 22 · conceded 29
4
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
6
61-75
6
4
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
