Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 31). Inter usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Parma had 4.2 days of rest, Inter 3 and had to travel 116 km.
Away travel116 kmRest days4.2 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Parma13%
Draw21%
Inter66%
Parma13%
Draw20%
Inter67%
Parma13%
Draw21%
Inter66%
Parma9%
Draw18%
Inter73%
Parma13%
Draw20%
Inter67%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyAndrea Colombo
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 61
Team strength
Parma
Inter
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
85
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
20
AttackIn forecast
91
33
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaInter
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.24
1.12
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.84
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
53%
Scored inContext
94%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
47%
11.29
ShotsContext
17.18
3.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.76
28%
On target shareContext
34%
7.06
Shots in the boxContext
11.82
59%
Box shareContext
70%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
1.58
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.88
Shots allowedContext
8.71
4.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
4.06
BlocksContext
3.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.69
72%
Save rateContext
81%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
332
PassesContext
516
260
Accurate passesContext
449
78%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.06
10.41
FoulsContext
14.35
13.65
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.53
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.40
ShotsContext
15.40
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
29%
On target shareContext
38%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
61%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.00
Shots allowedContext
9.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.78
BlocksContext
2.43
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
68%
Save rateContext
81%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
329
PassesContext
508
259
Accurate passesContext
439
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.04
9.40
FoulsContext
14.30
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km53 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Inter
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel116 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Jan | 3Serie A 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 116 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 53 km | 90 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.7 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
14E. Valeri
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
27Sascha Britschgi
22O. Sørensen
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
17J. Ondrejka
9Mateo Pellegrino
21G. Oristanio
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Y. Sommer(G)
30Carlos Augusto
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
22H. Mkhitaryan
20H. Çalhanoğlu
8P. Sučić
11L. de Lima
94F. Esposito
10L. Martínez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Inter+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
1.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.22
Inter · Away
2.25points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Lazio | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Udinese | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Bologna | L 1–3 H | W 3–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Como | D 0–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Genoa | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| Cremonese | D 0–0 A | W 4–1 H |
| Cagliari | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Juventus | L 0–2 A | L 3–4 A |
| Points | 18 of 48 · 1.13 per game | 39 of 48 · 2.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Parma wins1 draws1 Inter wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 5 Apr 2025Parma2–2Inter
- 6 Dec 2024Inter3–1Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 2.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.12 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 1.82 | 3.12 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 65% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 12% | 35% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 47% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 47% | |
| Failed to score | 47% | 6% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Parma | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.70 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 6.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.93 | 2.94 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 9.82 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 7/15 | 71% 12/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 6/15 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 6/15 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 1.53 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 1.76 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 3.29 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 11/17 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 7/17 | 18% 3/17 | |
| Parma | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.20 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andrea Colombo Italy · 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.79league 3.86
Red cards0.20league 0.17
Cards 5+57%league 37%
Fouls24.6league 25.8
Penalties0.13league 0.30
Home wins41%league 38%
Parma1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L12 Jan 25A · Genoa0–13
Inter7 with this referee
Record5-0-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L13 Sep 25A · Juventus3–41
- L20 Apr 25A · Bologna0–13
- W23 Nov 24A · Verona5–01
- W22 Apr 24A · AC Milan2–13
- W28 Feb 24H · Atalanta4–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma17 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Inter17 games · scored 38 · conceded 15
7
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
6
2
46-60
9
2
61-75
8
5
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
