Pisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lazio were slight favourites.
Lazio were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 15). Absences weigh more on Lazio. Pisa had 6 days of rest, Lazio 4 and had to travel 265 km.
Away travel265 kmRest days6 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Pisa17%
Draw25%
Lazio58%
Pisa17%
Draw23%
Lazio61%
Pisa17%
Draw25%
Lazio59%
Pisa13%
Draw22%
Lazio65%
Pisa18%
Draw23%
Lazio59%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Pisa)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Massa
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 94
Team strength
Pisa
Lazio
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
60
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
15
AttackIn forecast
53
21
DefenceIn forecast
63
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PisaLazio
0.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
38%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.13
ShotsContext
10.25
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.13
22%
On target shareContext
31%
6.57
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
62%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.20
16.63
Shots allowedContext
14.25
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.13
4.75
BlocksContext
2.25
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
69%
Save rateContext
83%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
304
PassesContext
426
235
Accurate passesContext
359
77%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.63
FoulsContext
11.00
11.88
Fouls sufferedContext
17.00
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
38%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.13
ShotsContext
11.80
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
22%
On target shareContext
31%
6.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
62%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.17
16.63
Shots allowedContext
13.30
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.75
BlocksContext
2.30
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
69%
Save rateContext
79%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
304
PassesContext
433
235
Accurate passesContext
367
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.93
13.63
FoulsContext
10.90
11.88
Fouls sufferedContext
16.10
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Pisa
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km435 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lazio
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel265 km961 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Pisa |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Oct | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 265 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 435 km | 961 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
5S. Canestrelli
4A. Caracciolo
44D. Denoon
3S. Angori
6M. Marin
20M. Aebischer
15I. Touré
11J. Cuadrado
10M. Tramoni
18M. Nzola
Lazio
Confirmed XI
94I. Provedel(G)
3L. Pellegrini
13A. Romagnoli
34Mario Gila
77A. Marušić
26T. Bašić
32D. Cataldi
8M. Guendouzi
10M. Zaccagni
19B. Dia
18G. Isaksen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Pisa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lazio
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Pisa+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Lazio-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Pisa · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Lazio · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Pisa | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | D 0–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Pisa | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 2.25 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 38% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 13% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 63% | 50% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Pisa | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 2.13 | 2.25 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 38% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 13% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 63% | 50% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Pisa | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.13 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.51 | 8.50 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.38 | 3.13 | |
| Match total | 3.13 | 4.88 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Pisa | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 4.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.13 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.51 | 9.38 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.75 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.38 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 3.13 | 5.20 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 94 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.60league 3.94
Red cards0.23league 0.12
Cards 5+51%league 39%
Fouls25.1league 25.9
Penalties0.14league 0.29
Home wins35%league 38%
Pisa1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 Sep 25H · Udinese0–11
Lazio12 with this referee
Record3-6-3
Cards · opp.3.2 · 3.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds3
- D10 May 25H · Juventus1–15
- D31 Mar 25H · Torino1–13
- D15 Feb 25H · Napoli2–22
- D28 Dec 24H · Atalanta1–12
- D31 Aug 24H · AC Milan2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Pisa8 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Lazio8 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Pisa8 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
