Plzen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Plzen63.9%fair odds 1.57
Draw19.5%fair odds 5.13
Levski Sofia16.6%fair odds 6.01
Expected goals2.35 – 1.14total 3.49
Likeliest score2–19.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Levski Sofia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Plzen ↓ · Levski Sofia → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Plzen goals, columns Levski Sofia goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.6%10.42
- 1–18.6%11.64
- 2–08.4%11.89
- 3–17.5%13.29
- 1–06.7%14.89
- 3–06.6%15.17
- 2–25.5%18.26
- 1–24.7%21.48
- 4–14.4%22.60
- 3–24.3%23.29
Winning margin
23.2%
Plzen by 3+
fair 4.31
19.0%
Plzen by 2
fair 5.27
21.7%
Plzen by 1
fair 4.61
19.5%
Draw
fair 5.13
10.3%
Levski Sofia by 1
fair 9.70
4.5%
Levski Sofia by 2
fair 22.40
1.9%
Levski Sofia by 3+
fair 53.53
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+
Plzen goals
10%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
21%4+
Levski Sofia goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen win | 63.9% | 63.5% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 19.5% | 19.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Levski Sofia win | 16.6% | 16.7% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 67.8% | 66.5% | +1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.0% | 61.0% | +1.0 pp |
| Expected goals Plzen | 2.35 | 2.31 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Levski Sofia | 1.14 | 1.12 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Plzen win63.9%1.57
- Draw19.5%5.13
- Levski Sofia win16.6%6.01
- Double chance Plzen or draw83.4%1.20
- Double chance Plzen or Levski Sofia80.5%1.24
- Double chance Levski Sofia or draw36.1%2.77
- Draw no bet Plzen79.3%1.26
- Draw no bet Levski Sofia20.7%4.84
Goals
- Over 0.596.5%1.04
- Over 1.586.8%1.15
- Over 2.567.8%1.47
- Over 3.546.2%2.16
- Over 4.527.3%3.66
- Under 1.513.2%7.56
- Under 2.532.2%3.11
- Under 3.553.8%1.86
Both teams to score
- Yes62.0%1.61
- No38.0%2.63
- Yes and over 2.553.4%1.87
- Plzen win and yes35.4%2.82
- Draw and yes16.0%6.25
- Levski Sofia win and yes10.6%9.43
Team goals
- Plzen over 0.590.5%1.11
- Plzen over 1.568.1%1.47
- Plzen over 2.541.8%2.39
- Levski Sofia over 0.568.1%1.47
- Levski Sofia over 1.531.6%3.16
- Levski Sofia over 2.510.8%9.25
- Plzen clean sheet31.9%3.13
- Levski Sofia clean sheet9.5%10.51
- Plzen win to nil28.5%3.51
- Levski Sofia win to nil6.0%16.55
Handicap
- Plzen −1.542.2%2.37
- Plzen −2.523.2%4.31
- Levski Sofia +1.557.8%1.73
- Levski Sofia +2.576.8%1.30
- Levski Sofia −1.56.3%15.79
- Plzen +1.593.7%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won66.7%
Avg chance given to result46.2%
1X2 Brier0.484
Over 2.5 called right63.9%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 6 | 39.4% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 44.1% | 58.3% |
| 50–60% | 10 | 54.5% | 70.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.3% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 72.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4838 | 0.5043 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.2% | 47.3% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 63.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 18 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.