Plzen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Plzen are clear favourites.
Plzen are the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Plzen. Plzen have 7 days of rest, Levski Sofia 7 and have to travel 1,094 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel1,094 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Plzen64%
Draw19%
Levski Sofia17%
Plzen59%
Draw23%
Levski Sofia18%
Plzen64%
Draw19%
Levski Sofia17%
Plzen56%
Draw22%
Levski Sofia22%
Plzen64%
Draw20%
Levski Sofia17%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Plzeň)
9°COvercast
- Precipitation 15%
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 75%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Plzen and Levski Sofia. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Levski Sofia
5
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Levski Sofia
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Plzen
−0.39
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.97xG against1.36
-
Insight
Levski Sofia
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
-
Insight
Levski Sofia
5
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Levski Sofia
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Levski Sofia
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Plzen
−0.39
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.97xG against1.36
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
PlzenLevski Sofia
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
54
AttackIn forecast
24
43
DefenceIn forecast
26
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevski Sofia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PlzenLevski Sofia
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.00
ShotsContext
11.00
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
38%
On target shareContext
9%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
59%
Box shareContext
76%
3%
ConversionContext
5%
—
OffsidesContext
—
17.00
Shots allowedContext
15.00
9.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.00
3.00
BlocksContext
3.50
7.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
7.00
74%
Save rateContext
88%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
432
PassesContext
455
339
Accurate passesContext
379
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.41
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.00
FoulsContext
11.50
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
17.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
—
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.88
ShotsContext
11.50
4.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
32%
On target shareContext
20%
8.13
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
56%
Box shareContext
59%
5%
ConversionContext
9%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.00
14.25
Shots allowedContext
14.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.50
BlocksContext
4.40
4.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
81%
Save rateContext
80%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
404
PassesContext
460
314
Accurate passesContext
392
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.85
14.10
FoulsContext
10.80
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
15.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Plzen
LL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km976 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 0 pts vs 2.3 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Plzen |
Levski Sofia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 22 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,094 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 976 km | 3,315 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Plzen
Last XI · not confirmed
1D. Ťapaj(G)
14Merchas Doski
98F. Prebsl
40S. Dweh
29A. Gabriel
17P. Hrošovský
36S. Pirgic
99Amar Memić
20J. Panoš
12A. Sojka
25C. Kabongo
Levski Sofia
Last XI · not confirmed
92S. Vutsov(G)
3Maicon
4C. Makoun
50K. Dimitrov
21Aldair
19E. El Moubarik
8M. Grujić
35Serginho
17Everton Bala
7Reinaldo
27D. Kusso
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Plzen
No reported absences
Levski Sofia
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Plzen+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Levski Sofia+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Plzen · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Levski Sofia · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Plzen | Levski Sofia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.50 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Plzen | Levski Sofia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.00 | 3.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Plzen | Levski Sofia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.00 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Plzen | Levski Sofia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 8.77 | 8.33 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Plzen2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Levski Sofia2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Plzen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Levski Sofia10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
3
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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