PSV Eindhoven vs Excelsior – 10 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Jan 10 · 19:00 Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven 1st · 46 pts · 17 played WWWWW

First leg2–1 5–1Full time

Excelsior 14th · 19 pts · 16 played LWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.

PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 17). Absences weigh more on Excelsior. PSV Eindhoven had 20.3 days of rest, Excelsior 21.1 and had to travel 87 km.

Away travel87 kmRest days20.3 · 21.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

PSV Eindhoven87%

Draw9%

Excelsior4%

Expected goals 3.28 – 0.60

PSV Eindhoven85%

Draw11%

Excelsior4%

Expected goals 3.03 – 0.59

PSV Eindhoven87%

Draw9%

Excelsior4%

Expected goals 3.23 – 0.61

PSV Eindhoven82%

Draw12%

Excelsior6%

Expected goals 2.93 – 0.68

PSV Eindhoven86%

Draw10%

Excelsior4%

Expected goals 3.08 – 0.58

Over 2.5 74% Both score 44% Likeliest score 3–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Eindhoven)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 50

Team strength

PSV Eindhoven

Excelsior

81 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

74 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

60 AttackIn forecast 21

64 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PSV Eindhoven

Attack—

Defense risk—

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PSV Eindhoven

Excelsior

3.06 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.24 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.69

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.98

+1.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

94% Scored inContext 75%

29% Clean sheetsContext 19%

17.35 ShotsContext 11.81

7.18 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.13

41% On target shareContext 35%

12.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

70% Box shareContext 62%

18% ConversionContext 9%

1.92 OffsidesContext 1.30

11.76 Shots allowedContext 16.31

4.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.38

3.47 BlocksContext 4.50

2.81 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

68% Save rateContext 71%

60% PossessionIn forecast 44%

542 PassesContext 367

471 Accurate passesContext 284

87% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.08 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.82 FoulsContext 13.56

8.29 Fouls sufferedContext 8.88

1.35 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 17 and 16 games

2.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.92

+1.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

100% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.60 ShotsContext 12.00

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

40% On target shareContext 34%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

75% Box shareContext 61%

21% ConversionContext 9%

2.57 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.60 Shots allowedContext 15.30

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

3.75 BlocksContext 4.00

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

73% Save rateContext 72%

57% PossessionIn forecast 44%

506 PassesContext 371

440 Accurate passesContext 288

87% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.40 FoulsContext 12.70

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 8.40

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PSV Eindhoven

Rest20.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Excelsior

Rest21.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel87 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PSV Eindhoven	Excelsior
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Dec	21.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	87 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PSV Eindhoven Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

32M. Kovář(G)

17Mauro Júnior 3Yarek Gąsiorowski 6R. Flamingo 8S. Dest

23J. Veerman 10P. Wanner

5I. Perišić 20G. Til 27D. Man

9R. Pepi

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. van Gassel(G)

15Simon Janssen 3R. Meissen 4C. Widell 2Ilias Bronkhorst

20L. Hartjes 23I. Yegoian

11G. de Regt 10N. Naujoks 30D. Sanches Fernandes

33Jerolldino Bergraaf

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PSV Eindhoven Absences are shown before kick-off

Excelsior Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

PSV Eindhoven+0.6 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Excelsior-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

PSV Eindhoven · Home 2.38points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 6-1-1
Scored: 3.25
Conceded: 1.63

Excelsior · Away 1.00points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-4
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 2.43

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 15 this season

Opponent	PSV Eindhoven	Excelsior
Utrecht	W 2–1 A	L 1–4 A
Heracles	W 4–3 H	L 1–2 H
Heerenveen	W 2–0 A	L 1–2 A
FC Volendam	W 3–0 H	W 2–1 A
NAC Breda	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 5–2 H	W 1–0 H
Feyenoord	W 3–2 A	L 1–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
PEC Zwolle	W 4–0 A	W 2–1 H
Ajax	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 A
NEC Nijmegen	W 5–3 A	L 0–5 A
Telstar	L 0–2 H	D 2–2 A
Groningen	W 4–2 H	L 0–2 H
Twente	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 6–1 H	L 0–1 H
Points	40 of 45 · 2.67 per game	19 of 45 · 1.27 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 Excelsior wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

27 Sep 2025Excelsior1–2PSV Eindhoven
13 Jan 2024PSV Eindhoven3–1Excelsior

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PSV Eindhoven	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	3.06	1.00
Conceded per game	1.24	1.69
Match goals	4.29	2.69	3.88
Over 1.5	94%	75%
Over 2.5	76%	63%	74%
Over 3.5	53%	19%
Both teams scored	65%	56%	44%
Clean sheets	29%	19%
Failed to score	6%	25%
Games	17	16

	PSV Eindhoven	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	3.10	1.10
Conceded per game	1.00	1.40
Match goals	4.10	2.50	3.88
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	74%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	44%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PSV Eindhoven	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	6.47	4.06
Corners conceded	4.24	5.13
Match total	10.71	9.19	10.24
Over 8.5	76% 13/17	56% 9/16
Over 9.5	76% 13/17	31% 5/16
Over 10.5	53% 9/17	31% 5/16
Cards
Cards	1.41	1.69
Opponent cards	1.65	1.44
Match total	3.06	3.13	3.60
Over 3.5	35% 6/17	38% 6/16
Over 4.5	24% 4/17	31% 5/16

	PSV Eindhoven	Excelsior	League
Corners
Corners won	6.40	4.20
Corners conceded	4.80	5.10
Match total	11.20	9.30	10.24
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.70
Opponent cards	2.10	1.40
Match total	3.50	3.10	3.60
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 50 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.40league 3.37

Red cards0.16league 0.22

Cards 5+30%league 32%

Fouls22.3league 21.8

Penalties0.26league 0.31

Home wins50%league 47%

PSV Eindhoven5 with this referee

Record4-1-0 Cards · opp.0.4 · 1.4 Pens for · against3 · 0

W23 Nov 24H · Groningen5–00
W10 Aug 24H · Waalwijk5–10
D21 Jan 24A · Utrecht1–11
W4 Nov 23A · Heracles6–00
W16 Sep 23H · NEC Nijmegen4–01

Excelsior4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W22 Nov 25A · Ajax2–11
L24 Aug 25A · Utrecht1–40
D7 Oct 23A · Vitesse0–00
L2 Sep 23A · Heracles1–34

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.