RAAL La Louvière
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
RAAL La Louvière
13th · 23 pts · 22 played
DLDWL
First leg0–1
1–1Full time
Gent
5th · 32 pts · 22 played
LLWWW
RAAL La Louvière31.2%fair odds 3.20
Draw27.5%fair odds 3.63
Gent41.2%fair odds 2.43
Expected goals1.19 – 1.41total 2.60
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Gent
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| RAAL La Louvière ↓ · Gent → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 13.1 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are RAAL La Louvière goals, columns Gent goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.62
- 0–19.8%10.21
- 1–28.8%11.40
- 1–08.2%12.19
- 0–08.1%12.35
- 2–17.4%13.45
- 0–27.4%13.60
- 2–05.3%18.91
- 2–25.2%19.12
- 1–34.1%24.33
Winning margin
4.3%
RAAL La Louvière by 3+
fair 23.50
8.9%
RAAL La Louvière by 2
fair 11.19
18.0%
RAAL La Louvière by 1
fair 5.54
27.5%
Draw
fair 3.63
21.4%
Gent by 1
fair 4.68
12.4%
Gent by 2
fair 8.05
7.4%
Gent by 3+
fair 13.49
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
RAAL La Louvière goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Gent goals
25%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière win | 31.2% | 32.1% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.8% | +0.7 pp |
| Gent win | 41.2% | 41.1% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.1% | 51.2% | -3.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.3% | 55.7% | -2.5 pp |
| Expected goals RAAL La Louvière | 1.19 | 1.26 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Gent | 1.41 | 1.46 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- RAAL La Louvière win31.2%3.20
- Draw27.5%3.63
- Gent win41.2%2.43
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or draw58.8%1.70
- Double chance RAAL La Louvière or Gent72.5%1.38
- Double chance Gent or draw68.8%1.45
- Draw no bet RAAL La Louvière43.1%2.32
- Draw no bet Gent56.9%1.76
Goals
- Over 0.591.9%1.09
- Over 1.573.9%1.35
- Over 2.548.1%2.08
- Over 3.526.4%3.79
- Over 4.512.2%8.17
- Under 1.526.1%3.83
- Under 2.551.9%1.93
- Under 3.573.6%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes53.3%1.88
- No46.7%2.14
- Yes and over 2.540.1%2.49
- RAAL La Louvière win and yes14.8%6.75
- Draw and yes19.4%5.14
- Gent win and yes19.0%5.27
Team goals
- RAAL La Louvière over 0.569.7%1.44
- RAAL La Louvière over 1.533.5%2.99
- RAAL La Louvière over 2.511.9%8.41
- Gent over 0.575.5%1.32
- Gent over 1.541.0%2.44
- Gent over 2.516.8%5.95
- RAAL La Louvière clean sheet24.5%4.08
- Gent clean sheet30.3%3.30
- RAAL La Louvière win to nil16.4%6.10
- Gent win to nil22.2%4.49
Handicap
- RAAL La Louvière −1.513.2%7.58
- RAAL La Louvière −2.54.3%23.50
- Gent +1.586.8%1.15
- Gent +2.595.7%1.04
- Gent −1.519.8%5.04
- RAAL La Louvière +1.580.2%1.25
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored176
Favourite won43.8%
Avg chance given to result37.2%
1X2 Brier0.635
Over 2.5 called right51.7%
BTTS called right52.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 38.1% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 84 | 44.9% | 34.5% |
| 50–60% | 40 | 54.5% | 55.0% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 64.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 138 of 176 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6434 | 0.6386 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.0% | 37.7% |
| Favourite won | 42.8% | 41.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 138 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 176 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.