RAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
RAAL La Louvière
13th · 23 pts · 22 played
DLDWL
First leg0–1
1–1Full time
Gent
5th · 32 pts · 22 played
LLWWW
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Gent. RAAL La Louvière had 6.2 days of rest, Gent 7 and had to travel 71 km.
Away travel71 kmRest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
RAAL La Louvière31%
Draw28%
Gent41%
RAAL La Louvière33%
Draw27%
Gent40%
RAAL La Louvière31%
Draw28%
Gent41%
RAAL La Louvière25%
Draw26%
Gent49%
RAAL La Louvière32%
Draw27%
Gent41%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Louvière)
No weather data yet
RefereeMassimiliano Ledda
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 8
Team strength
RAAL La LouvièreGent
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
15
AttackIn forecast
46
15
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RAAL La LouvièreGent
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.64
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
59%
Scored inContext
82%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
9.50
ShotsContext
12.86
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
29%
On target shareContext
35%
6.62
Shots in the boxContext
8.23
68%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.38
11.86
Shots allowedContext
13.73
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
3.10
BlocksContext
4.00
3.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
77%
Save rateContext
76%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
267
PassesContext
441
191
Accurate passesContext
363
72%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.09
FoulsContext
10.77
11.36
Fouls sufferedContext
10.91
1.77
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.20
ShotsContext
12.70
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
31%
On target shareContext
32%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
69%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.10
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.33
BlocksContext
3.70
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
71%
Save rateContext
76%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
294
PassesContext
396
218
Accurate passesContext
321
74%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.40
FoulsContext
11.10
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RAAL La Louvière
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km210 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel71 km276 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RAAL La Louvière |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 71 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 210 km | 276 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
25D. Lamego
99Y. Okou
13M. Maisonneuve
11J. Liongola
5T. Lutonda
15S. Lahssaini
19Darío Benavides
23J. Ito
7P. Fall
22J. Afriyie
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
57Matties Volckaert
22Leonardo Lopes
15A. Ito
8M. Skóraś
37A. Kadri
24H. Hong
7A. Kanga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
RAAL La Louvière · Home
1.18points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-4
- Scored
- 0.55
- Conceded
- 0.73
Gent · Away
1.09points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-5
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | RAAL La Louvière | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| OH Leuven | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 1–4 A |
| Dender | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Charleroi | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 H | W 4–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–1 H | W 4–2 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 H | W 4–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Points | 23 of 63 · 1.10 per game | 29 of 63 · 1.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 RAAL La Louvière wins0 draws1 Gent wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 2 Aug 2025Gent1–0RAAL La Louvière
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RAAL La Louvière | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.05 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 59% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 59% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 18% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| RAAL La Louvière | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RAAL La Louvière | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.41 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.82 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 8.23 | 10.00 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 10/22 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 7/22 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 1.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.55 | 1.95 | |
| Match total | 3.37 | 3.72 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 11/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 5/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| RAAL La Louvière | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.13 | 9.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.70 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Massimiliano Ledda 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.84
Red cards0.50league 0.18
Cards 5+38%league 40%
Fouls23.8league 22.9
Penalties0.25league 0.28
Home wins50%league 41%
RAAL La Louvière2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D18 Oct 25H · KVC Westerlo0–00
- L30 Aug 25A · KV Mechelen2–30
GentNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RAAL La Louvière22 games · scored 19 · conceded 25
1
4
0-15
5
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
7
9
76-90
Gent22 games · scored 36 · conceded 31
5
2
0-15
5
8
16-30
5
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
14
8
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
