Rangers
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Rangers26.2%fair odds 3.82
Draw25.0%fair odds 4.00
AS Roma48.8%fair odds 2.05
Expected goals1.20 – 1.72total 2.92
Likeliest score1–111.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AS Roma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Rangers ↓ · AS Roma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Rangers goals, columns AS Roma goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%8.51
- 1–29.6%10.45
- 0–18.7%11.49
- 0–28.0%12.55
- 2–16.7%14.94
- 0–06.0%16.64
- 1–05.9%16.91
- 2–25.7%17.42
- 1–35.5%18.29
- 0–34.6%21.95
Winning margin
3.4%
Rangers by 3+
fair 29.04
7.4%
Rangers by 2
fair 13.56
15.3%
Rangers by 1
fair 6.52
25.0%
Draw
fair 4.00
22.2%
AS Roma by 1
fair 4.51
15.1%
AS Roma by 2
fair 6.64
11.6%
AS Roma by 3+
fair 8.61
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Rangers goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
AS Roma goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 26.2% | 26.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.0% | 26.2% | -1.2 pp |
| AS Roma win | 48.8% | 47.9% | +1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.8% | 50.9% | +4.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.9% | 54.2% | +3.7 pp |
| Expected goals Rangers | 1.20 | 1.12 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals AS Roma | 1.72 | 1.60 | +0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Rangers win26.2%3.82
- Draw25.0%4.00
- AS Roma win48.8%2.05
- Double chance Rangers or draw51.2%1.95
- Double chance Rangers or AS Roma75.0%1.33
- Double chance AS Roma or draw73.8%1.35
- Draw no bet Rangers34.9%2.87
- Draw no bet AS Roma65.1%1.54
Goals
- Over 0.594.0%1.06
- Over 1.579.4%1.26
- Over 2.555.8%1.79
- Over 3.533.4%3.00
- Over 4.517.1%5.86
- Under 1.520.6%4.85
- Under 2.544.2%2.26
- Under 3.566.6%1.50
Both teams to score
- Yes57.9%1.73
- No42.1%2.38
- Yes and over 2.546.2%2.17
- Rangers win and yes14.2%7.06
- Draw and yes19.0%5.27
- AS Roma win and yes24.7%4.04
Team goals
- Rangers over 0.569.9%1.43
- Rangers over 1.533.8%2.96
- Rangers over 2.512.1%8.29
- AS Roma over 0.582.0%1.22
- AS Roma over 1.551.1%1.96
- AS Roma over 2.524.7%4.05
- Rangers clean sheet18.0%5.56
- AS Roma clean sheet30.1%3.32
- Rangers win to nil12.0%8.34
- AS Roma win to nil24.1%4.15
Handicap
- Rangers −1.510.8%9.24
- Rangers −2.53.4%29.04
- AS Roma +1.589.2%1.12
- AS Roma +2.596.6%1.04
- AS Roma −1.526.7%3.75
- Rangers +1.573.3%1.36
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored63
Favourite won52.4%
Avg chance given to result39.5%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right49.2%
BTTS called right50.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.4% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 28 | 44.2% | 39.3% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 54.8% | 70.8% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.7% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 45 of 63 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5911 | 0.6054 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.6% | 39.5% |
| Favourite won | 51.1% | 60.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 45 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 63 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.