RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 63). RB Leipzig had 7 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 5.9 and had to travel 364 km.
Away travel364 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
RB Leipzig49%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart26%
RB Leipzig49%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart26%
RB Leipzig49%
Draw24%
VfB Stuttgart26%
RB Leipzig42%
Draw25%
VfB Stuttgart33%
RB Leipzig49%
Draw26%
VfB Stuttgart25%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 85
Team strength
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
76
AttackIn forecast
70
53
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfB Stuttgart
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigVfB Stuttgart
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
88%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.25
ShotsContext
15.25
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.75
31%
On target shareContext
38%
10.13
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
66%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.13
Shots allowedContext
10.63
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.38
4.88
BlocksContext
3.00
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
69%
Save rateContext
84%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
455
PassesContext
526
382
Accurate passesContext
450
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.75
FoulsContext
11.50
10.88
Fouls sufferedContext
12.75
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
80%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.40
ShotsContext
16.20
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
33%
On target shareContext
34%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
65%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.80
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
5.10
BlocksContext
3.30
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
68%
Save rateContext
81%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
454
PassesContext
518
382
Accurate passesContext
443
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.80
FoulsContext
11.40
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km693 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfB Stuttgart
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel364 km3,547 km in 14d
Schedule load16%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
VfB Stuttgart |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 16 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 364 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 693 km | 3,547 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
20F. Ouédraogo
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed XI
33A. Nübel(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
14L. Jaquez
7M. Mittelstädt
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
4J. Vagnoman
11B. El Khannouss
10C. Führich
26D. Undav
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfB Stuttgart
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- VfB Stuttgart-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
VfB Stuttgart · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 12 of 12 · 3.00 per game | 12 of 12 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 RB Leipzig wins1 draws3 VfB Stuttgart wins
Goals per game2.38 – 1.63
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 17 May 2025RB Leipzig2–3VfB Stuttgart
- 15 Jan 2025VfB Stuttgart2–1RB Leipzig
- 27 Jan 2024VfB Stuttgart5–2RB Leipzig
- 25 Aug 2023RB Leipzig5–1VfB Stuttgart
- 27 Jan 2023RB Leipzig2–1VfB Stuttgart
- 7 Aug 2022VfB Stuttgart1–1RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 2.50 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 63% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| RB Leipzig | VfB Stuttgart | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.13 | 2.30 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 20% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.63 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 11.00 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.88 | 3.50 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| RB Leipzig | VfB Stuttgart | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 10.40 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.60 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 85 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 4.23
Red cards0.09league 0.22
Cards 5+42%league 44%
Fouls20.2league 22.6
Penalties0.20league 0.40
Home wins40%league 42%
RB Leipzig11 with this referee
Record6-2-3
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W13 Sep 25A · FSV Mainz 051–00
- D8 Mar 25A · SC Freiburg0–03
- W26 Oct 24H · SC Freiburg3–13
- D14 Sep 24H · Union Berlin0–02
- L27 Jan 24A · VfB Stuttgart2–54
VfB Stuttgart5 with this referee
Record3-2-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W30 Aug 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–02
- D28 Sep 24A · VfL Wolfsburg2–22
- W27 Jan 24H · RB Leipzig5–21
- W21 May 23A · FSV Mainz 054–11
- D30 Apr 22H · VfL Wolfsburg1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig8 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
VfB Stuttgart8 games · scored 13 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
5
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
