RB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 55). RB Leipzig had 15 days of rest, Werder Bremen 15.8 and had to travel 310 km.
Away travel310 kmRest days15 · 15.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
RB Leipzig54%
Draw24%
Werder Bremen22%
RB Leipzig52%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen22%
RB Leipzig54%
Draw24%
Werder Bremen23%
RB Leipzig46%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen29%
RB Leipzig53%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen22%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMartin Petersen
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 50
Team strength
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
76
AttackIn forecast
56
53
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RB LeipzigWerder Bremen
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.30
ShotsContext
12.20
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
33%
On target shareContext
38%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
68%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.80
Shots allowedContext
15.30
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.60
BlocksContext
4.20
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
70%
Save rateContext
63%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
450
PassesContext
465
375
Accurate passesContext
381
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.80
FoulsContext
9.50
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.30
ShotsContext
12.20
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
33%
On target shareContext
38%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
68%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.75
13.80
Shots allowedContext
15.30
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.60
BlocksContext
4.20
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
70%
Save rateContext
63%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
450
PassesContext
465
375
Accurate passesContext
381
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.80
FoulsContext
9.50
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RB Leipzig
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel310 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RB Leipzig |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Bundesliga 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 15.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 310 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
20F. Ouédraogo
7A. Nusa
11C. Harder
49Y. Diomande
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
32M. Friedl
31Karim Coulibaly
5A. Pieper
3Y. Sugawara
6J. Stage
14S. Lynen
17M. Grüll
20R. Schmid
18Cameron Puertas
9K. Topp
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RB Leipzig
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RB Leipzig+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Werder Bremen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
RB Leipzig · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Werder Bremen · Away
1.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 2.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | RB Leipzig | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 0–6 A | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 9 of 12 · 2.25 per game | 5 of 12 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 RB Leipzig wins3 draws0 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored83%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 10 May 2025Werder Bremen0–0RB Leipzig
- 12 Jan 2025RB Leipzig4–2Werder Bremen
- 11 May 2024RB Leipzig1–1Werder Bremen
- 19 Dec 2023Werder Bremen1–1RB Leipzig
- 14 May 2023RB Leipzig2–1Werder Bremen
- 12 Nov 2022Werder Bremen1–2RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RB Leipzig | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| RB Leipzig | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RB Leipzig | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 12.50 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.80 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| RB Leipzig | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 12.50 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.80 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Petersen Germany · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.34league 3.99
Red cards0.20league 0.21
Cards 5+52%league 41%
Fouls24.4league 21.9
Penalties0.22league 0.36
Home wins42%league 44%
RB Leipzig5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 3.2
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D23 Feb 25H · 1. FC Heidenheim2–23
- L30 Nov 24H · VfL Wolfsburg1–52
- D4 Feb 23A · 1.FC Köln0–04
- W5 Nov 22A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–12
- L2 May 22A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–32
Werder Bremen5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.3.6 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- W31 Jan 25H · FSV Mainz 051–08
- W18 May 24H · VfL Bochum4–11
- L25 Nov 23H · Bayer Leverkusen0–33
- L1 Oct 23A · SV Darmstadt 982–42
- L9 Sep 22H · FC Augsburg0–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
5
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
6
2
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
5
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
5
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
