UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 21 · 17:45 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
Real Sociedad 22nd · 1 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Plzen 32nd · 0 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,361 kmRest days4.1 · 41.9Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Real Sociedad—%
Draw—%
Plzen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

Forecast from 6 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Sociedad and Plzen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Real SociedadPlzen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
58 Current StrengthIn forecast 49
62 AttackIn forecast 54
48 DefenceIn forecast 43
81 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack—
Defense risk—

Plzen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real SociedadPlzen
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
10.00 ShotsContext 16.00
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
30% On target shareContext 38%
4.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
50% Box shareContext 59%
10% ConversionContext 3%
1.00 OffsidesContext —
13.50 Shots allowedContext 17.00
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 9.50
3.50 BlocksContext 3.00
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 7.00
63% Save rateContext 74%
55% PossessionIn forecast 48%
561 PassesContext 432
469 Accurate passesContext 339
84% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.51 Team ratingContext 6.41
13.50 FoulsContext 14.00
14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.28 xGVia Att/Def 0.97
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36
+0.62 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
80% Scored inContext 60%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.80 ShotsContext 13.88
5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.38
38% On target shareContext 32%
7.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.13
55% Box shareContext 56%
14% ConversionContext 5%
1.75 OffsidesContext 1.25
15.80 Shots allowedContext 14.25
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00
3.90 BlocksContext 3.50
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.88
70% Save rateContext 81%
50% PossessionIn forecast 48%
481 PassesContext 404
410 Accurate passesContext 314
85% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.75
12.40 FoulsContext 14.10
10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km858 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
  • D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts
Plzen
Rest41.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,361 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 30 · 0 pts vs 2.3 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Ferencvarosi TC1–20.9 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–31.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Real Sociedad Plzen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.1La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Jan41.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,361 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways858 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 30 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one2.97.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort
7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo
9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal
Plzen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Ferencvarosi TC (A) 1–2, 15 Oct
1D. Ťapaj(G)
14Merchas Doski 98F. Prebsl 40S. Dweh 29A. Gabriel
17P. Hrošovský 36S. Pirgic
99Amar Memić 20J. Panoš 12A. Sojka
25C. Kabongo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Real Sociedad Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Plzen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00
Plzen · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentReal SociedadPlzen
Union St. Gilloise D 1–1 A L 0–3 H
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Real Sociedad wins0 draws1 Plzen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 7 Nov 2024Plzen2–1Real Sociedad

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Real SociedadPlzenForecast
Scored per game 1.000.50
Conceded per game 1.502.50
Match goals 2.503.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 100%50%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
Real SociedadPlzenForecast
Scored per game 1.901.10
Conceded per game 1.901.30
Match goals 3.802.40
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 80%50%
Over 3.5 50%20%
Both teams scored 80%50%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 20%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Real SociedadPlzenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.004.00
Corners conceded3.504.00
Match total9.508.009.76
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards2.001.50
Opponent cards2.002.00
Match total4.003.503.76
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/20% 0/2
Real SociedadPlzenLeague
Corners
Corners won7.004.33
Corners conceded4.704.44
Match total11.708.779.76
Over 8.590% 9/1067% 6/9
Over 9.580% 8/1056% 5/9
Over 10.570% 7/1022% 2/9
Cards
Cards2.202.20
Opponent cards2.403.30
Match total4.605.503.76
Over 3.570% 7/1090% 9/10
Over 4.570% 7/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Real Sociedad2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
2 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Plzen2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
61-75
1 1 76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
3 6 76-90
Plzen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
1 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
2 1 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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