Real Sociedad
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Real Sociedad30.2%fair odds 3.31
Draw28.4%fair odds 3.52
Villarreal41.4%fair odds 2.42
Expected goals1.11 – 1.34total 2.46
Likeliest score1–113.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Villarreal
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Real Sociedad ↓ · Villarreal → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 13.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Real Sociedad goals, columns Villarreal goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.5%7.41
- 0–110.9%9.21
- 0–09.3%10.80
- 1–08.9%11.30
- 1–28.6%11.60
- 0–27.8%12.89
- 2–17.1%14.04
- 2–05.3%18.88
- 2–24.8%20.88
- 1–33.9%25.88
Winning margin
3.7%
Real Sociedad by 3+
fair 26.81
8.5%
Real Sociedad by 2
fair 11.79
18.0%
Real Sociedad by 1
fair 5.56
28.4%
Draw
fair 3.52
21.9%
Villarreal by 1
fair 4.56
12.4%
Villarreal by 2
fair 8.05
7.1%
Villarreal by 3+
fair 14.16
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
20%1
27%2
21%3
13%4
10%5+
Real Sociedad goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
Villarreal goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad win | 30.2% | 30.3% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.1% | +1.4 pp |
| Villarreal win | 41.4% | 42.6% | -1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 44.5% | 49.7% | -5.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.3% | 54.3% | -4.0 pp |
| Expected goals Real Sociedad | 1.11 | 1.20 | -0.09 |
| Expected goals Villarreal | 1.34 | 1.46 | -0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Real Sociedad win30.2%3.31
- Draw28.4%3.52
- Villarreal win41.4%2.42
- Double chance Real Sociedad or draw58.6%1.71
- Double chance Real Sociedad or Villarreal71.6%1.40
- Double chance Villarreal or draw69.8%1.43
- Draw no bet Real Sociedad42.2%2.37
- Draw no bet Villarreal57.8%1.73
Goals
- Over 0.590.7%1.10
- Over 1.571.0%1.41
- Over 2.544.5%2.25
- Over 3.523.3%4.29
- Over 4.510.3%9.71
- Under 1.529.0%3.45
- Under 2.555.5%1.80
- Under 3.576.7%1.30
Both teams to score
- Yes50.3%1.99
- No49.7%2.01
- Yes and over 2.536.8%2.72
- Real Sociedad win and yes13.4%7.47
- Draw and yes19.2%5.22
- Villarreal win and yes17.7%5.64
Team goals
- Real Sociedad over 0.567.1%1.49
- Real Sociedad over 1.530.5%3.28
- Real Sociedad over 2.510.2%9.82
- Villarreal over 0.573.9%1.35
- Villarreal over 1.538.9%2.57
- Villarreal over 2.515.3%6.52
- Real Sociedad clean sheet26.1%3.84
- Villarreal clean sheet32.9%3.04
- Real Sociedad win to nil16.8%5.95
- Villarreal win to nil23.7%4.23
Handicap
- Real Sociedad −1.512.2%8.19
- Real Sociedad −2.53.7%26.81
- Villarreal +1.587.8%1.14
- Villarreal +2.596.3%1.04
- Villarreal −1.519.5%5.13
- Real Sociedad +1.580.5%1.24
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored135
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result42.4%
1X2 Brier0.555
Over 2.5 called right60.7%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 37.7% | 42.1% |
| 40–50% | 59 | 44.1% | 45.8% |
| 50–60% | 24 | 54.1% | 58.3% |
| 60–70% | 18 | 64.2% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 13 | 75.0% | 92.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 81.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 104 of 135 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5488 | 0.5417 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 43.6% |
| Favourite won | 57.7% | 58.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 104 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Atletico Madrid 2–0 Oviedo82·13·5
- ✓Levante 0–2 Athletic Club31·29·40
- ✓Barcelona 3–1 Alaves76·16·8
- ✗Mallorca 2–2 Osasuna43·28·29
- ✓Getafe 1–0 Elche46·27·27
- ✓Espanyol 2–1 Sevilla44·28·28
- ✗Elche 2–2 Real Madrid13·20·66
- ✓Getafe 0–1 Atletico Madrid21·26·54
- ✗Real Betis 1–1 Girona63·22·15
- ✗Oviedo 0–0 Rayo Vallecano26·27·47
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 135 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.