Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Villarreal were slight favourites.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 55). Absences weigh more on Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad had 7.8 days of rest, Villarreal 7.7 and had to travel 406 km.
Away travel406 kmRest days7.8 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real Sociedad30%
Draw28%
Villarreal41%
Real Sociedad32%
Draw27%
Villarreal41%
Real Sociedad32%
Draw28%
Villarreal40%
Real Sociedad24%
Draw27%
Villarreal49%
Real Sociedad30%
Draw27%
Villarreal43%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 31
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Villarreal
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
62
AttackIn forecast
76
48
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadVillarreal
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.85
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
85%
Scored inContext
92%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
46%
13.54
ShotsContext
13.62
4.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.08
35%
On target shareContext
37%
8.54
Shots in the boxContext
9.23
66%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
3.10
OffsidesContext
3.11
12.15
Shots allowedContext
11.46
3.69
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.15
3.45
BlocksContext
4.82
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.31
67%
Save rateContext
73%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
423
PassesContext
432
347
Accurate passesContext
370
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.98
15.08
FoulsContext
11.00
10.85
Fouls sufferedContext
11.08
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.90
ShotsContext
11.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
36%
On target shareContext
35%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
68%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
3.50
OffsidesContext
2.14
11.90
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.78
BlocksContext
4.11
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
70%
Save rateContext
63%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
418
PassesContext
401
337
Accurate passesContext
337
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.83
15.30
FoulsContext
11.40
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km123 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Villarreal
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel406 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 7.7La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 406 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 123 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
6Elustondo
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
18Carlos Soler
4Jon Gorrotxategi
11Gonçalo Guedes
23Brais Méndez
14T. Kubo
15U. Sadiq
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
24A. Pedraza Sag
4Rafa Marín
8J. Foyth
15S. Mouriño
20Alberto Moleiro
18P. Gueye
14Santi Comesaña
17T. Buchanan
22Ayoze Pérez
7Gerard Moreno
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad-1.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Villarreal+1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.33
Villarreal · Away
1.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 H | W 4–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Real Betis | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 15 of 33 · 1.36 per game | 26 of 33 · 2.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Real Sociedad wins3 draws3 Villarreal wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.30
Over 2.550%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 10%
- 20 Apr 2025Villarreal2–2Real Sociedad
- 13 Jan 2025Real Sociedad1–0Villarreal
- 23 Feb 2024Real Sociedad1–3Villarreal
- 9 Dec 2023Villarreal0–3Real Sociedad
- 2 Apr 2023Villarreal2–0Real Sociedad
- 9 Oct 2022Real Sociedad1–0Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 0.85 | |
| Match goals | 2.69 | 2.85 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 54% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 77% | 46% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 46% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 8% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Real Sociedad | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.23 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.08 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.31 | 8.90 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 8/13 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 7/13 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.15 | 2.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.23 | 1.54 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 3.77 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 8/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 3/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Real Sociedad | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 7.00 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.80 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.74league 4.05
Red cards0.29league 0.27
Cards 5+61%league 46%
Fouls23.7league 24.5
Penalties0.23league 0.33
Home wins48%league 48%
Real Sociedad4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 May 25H · Athletic Club0–01
- W16 May 24H · Valencia1–00
- W15 Mar 24H · Cadiz2–03
- L17 Sep 23A · Real Madrid1–22
Villarreal3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W23 Sep 25A · Sevilla2–13
- L5 May 24A · Celta Vigo2–31
- W20 Dec 23H · Celta Vigo3–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad13 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
6
31-45
6
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Villarreal13 games · scored 26 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
6
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
