Red Bull Salzburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Red Bull Salzburg
35th · 0 pts · 2 played
LL
2–3Full time
Ferencvarosi TC
11th · 4 pts · 2 played
DW
Red Bull Salzburg44.2%fair odds 2.26
Draw26.3%fair odds 3.80
Ferencvarosi TC29.5%fair odds 3.39
Expected goals1.55 – 1.22total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Ferencvarosi TC
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Red Bull Salzburg ↓ · Ferencvarosi TC → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Red Bull Salzburg goals, columns Ferencvarosi TC goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%8.01
- 2–19.2%10.91
- 1–09.1%11.03
- 2–07.5%13.33
- 1–27.2%13.79
- 0–17.0%14.21
- 0–06.9%14.49
- 2–25.6%17.84
- 3–14.7%21.16
- 0–24.7%21.33
Winning margin
9.1%
Red Bull Salzburg by 3+
fair 11.04
13.5%
Red Bull Salzburg by 2
fair 7.41
21.6%
Red Bull Salzburg by 1
fair 4.62
26.3%
Draw
fair 3.80
17.0%
Ferencvarosi TC by 1
fair 5.89
8.4%
Ferencvarosi TC by 2
fair 11.85
4.1%
Ferencvarosi TC by 3+
fair 24.47
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Red Bull Salzburg goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Ferencvarosi TC goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull Salzburg win | 44.2% | 43.6% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.7% | -0.4 pp |
| Ferencvarosi TC win | 29.5% | 29.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 50.8% | +1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.2% | 55.0% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Red Bull Salzburg | 1.55 | 1.50 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Ferencvarosi TC | 1.22 | 1.20 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Red Bull Salzburg win44.2%2.26
- Draw26.3%3.80
- Ferencvarosi TC win29.5%3.39
- Double chance Red Bull Salzburg or draw70.5%1.42
- Double chance Red Bull Salzburg or Ferencvarosi TC73.7%1.36
- Double chance Ferencvarosi TC or draw55.8%1.79
- Draw no bet Red Bull Salzburg60.0%1.67
- Draw no bet Ferencvarosi TC40.0%2.50
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.577.0%1.30
- Over 2.552.3%1.91
- Over 3.530.1%3.32
- Over 4.514.8%6.78
- Under 1.523.0%4.35
- Under 2.547.7%2.10
- Under 3.569.9%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes56.2%1.78
- No43.8%2.28
- Yes and over 2.543.7%2.29
- Red Bull Salzburg win and yes21.6%4.62
- Draw and yes19.4%5.15
- Ferencvarosi TC win and yes15.1%6.63
Team goals
- Red Bull Salzburg over 0.578.7%1.27
- Red Bull Salzburg over 1.545.8%2.19
- Red Bull Salzburg over 2.520.3%4.93
- Ferencvarosi TC over 0.570.6%1.42
- Ferencvarosi TC over 1.534.6%2.89
- Ferencvarosi TC over 2.512.5%7.97
- Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet29.4%3.40
- Ferencvarosi TC clean sheet21.3%4.70
- Red Bull Salzburg win to nil22.5%4.44
- Ferencvarosi TC win to nil14.4%6.94
Handicap
- Red Bull Salzburg −1.522.6%4.43
- Red Bull Salzburg −2.59.1%11.04
- Ferencvarosi TC +1.577.4%1.29
- Ferencvarosi TC +2.590.9%1.10
- Ferencvarosi TC −1.512.5%7.99
- Red Bull Salzburg +1.587.5%1.14
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored36
Favourite won52.8%
Avg chance given to result39.4%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right44.4%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.8% | 60.0% |
| 40–50% | 17 | 44.4% | 35.3% |
| 50–60% | 11 | 54.8% | 72.7% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 65.3% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 18 of 36 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5928 | 0.6390 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.5% | 37.9% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 55.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 36 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.