UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 23 · 17:45 Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim
Red Bull Salzburg 35th · 0 pts · 2 played
2–3Full time
Ferencvarosi TC 11th · 4 pts · 2 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Red Bull Salzburg were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Red Bull Salzburg. Red Bull Salzburg had 20.9 days of rest, Ferencvarosi TC 20.9 and had to travel 456 km.

Away travel456 kmRest days20.9 · 20.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Red Bull Salzburg44%
Draw26%
Ferencvarosi TC29%
Expected goals 1.55 – 1.22
Red Bull Salzburg45%
Draw27%
Ferencvarosi TC29%
Expected goals 1.52 – 1.17
Red Bull Salzburg45%
Draw26%
Ferencvarosi TC28%
Expected goals 1.57 – 1.19
Red Bull Salzburg37%
Draw27%
Ferencvarosi TC36%
Expected goals 1.38 – 1.37
Red Bull Salzburg44%
Draw27%
Ferencvarosi TC30%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.20
Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Wals-Siezenheim)

No weather data yet

RefereeGoga Kikacheishvili
  • Cards per match 4.9
  • Penalties per match 0.42
  • Matches 12

Team strength

Red Bull SalzburgFerencvarosi TC
44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42
39 Current StrengthIn forecast 57
36 AttackIn forecast 61
29 DefenceIn forecast 56
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Red Bull Salzburg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Red Bull SalzburgFerencvarosi TC
0.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
0.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.05
1.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.83
-0.81 Goals minus xGContext -0.05
0% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.00 ShotsContext 9.00
3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
29% On target shareContext 39%
6.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.50
55% Box shareContext 73%
0% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext —
14.50 Shots allowedContext 11.00
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00
3.50 BlocksContext 3.00
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
67% Save rateContext 83%
40% PossessionIn forecast 45%
387 PassesContext 358
315 Accurate passesContext 284
81% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.73 Team ratingContext 6.92
13.50 FoulsContext 18.00
9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
— xGVia Att/Def 0.91
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28
— Goals minus xGContext +0.69
70% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.40 ShotsContext 12.70
4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
35% On target shareContext 32%
8.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.60
63% Box shareContext 67%
10% ConversionContext 13%
2.22 OffsidesContext 2.33
14.40 Shots allowedContext 11.60
4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
4.00 BlocksContext 3.63
3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88
71% Save rateContext 68%
54% PossessionIn forecast 48%
456 PassesContext 359
381 Accurate passesContext 280
84% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.97
9.90 FoulsContext 16.20
10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Red Bull Salzburg
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Ferencvarosi TC
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel456 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Red Bull Salzburg Ferencvarosi TC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match20.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct20.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km456 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one1414.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Red Bull Salzburg Confirmed XI
4-3-3
1A. Schlager(G)
13F. Krätzig 2J. Rasmussen 23J. Gadou 22S. Lainer
14M. Kjærgaard 5S. Diabaté 49M. Yeo
27Kerim Alajbegović 21P. Ratkov 20E. Baidoo
+10 more reported missing outside this XI
Ferencvarosi TC Confirmed XI
3-5-2
90D. Dibusz(G)
27I. Cissé 28T. Raemaekers 3S. Gartenmann
20Cadu 36G. Kanichowsky 23B. Ötvös 16K. Zachariassen 25Č. Makreckis
11B. Yusuf 19B. Varga
+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Red Bull Salzburg Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Ferencvarosi TC Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Red Bull Salzburg-1.1 pp
  • Draw+0.1 pp
  • Ferencvarosi TC+1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Red Bull Salzburg · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00
Ferencvarosi TC · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Red Bull SalzburgFerencvarosi TCForecast
Scored per game 0.001.00
Conceded per game 1.500.50
Match goals 1.501.50 2.77
Over 1.5 50%50%
Over 2.5 0%0% 52%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 0%50% 56%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 100%0%
Games22
Red Bull SalzburgFerencvarosi TCForecast
Scored per game 0.001.00
Conceded per game 1.500.50
Match goals 1.501.50 2.77
Over 1.5 50%50%
Over 2.5 0%0% 52%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 0%50% 56%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 100%0%
Games22

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Red Bull SalzburgFerencvarosi TCLeague
Corners
Corners won1.503.00
Corners conceded5.004.00
Match total6.507.009.33
Over 8.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 9.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 10.50% 0/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards2.503.50
Opponent cards1.001.00
Match total3.504.504.22
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/250% 1/2
Red Bull SalzburgFerencvarosi TCLeague
Corners
Corners won3.404.30
Corners conceded4.903.70
Match total8.308.009.33
Over 8.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 9.540% 4/1020% 2/10
Over 10.530% 3/1020% 2/10
Cards
Cards2.302.40
Opponent cards1.701.90
Match total4.004.304.22
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Goga Kikacheishvili 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.75league 4.08
Red cards0.17league 0.14
Cards 5+67%league 42%
Fouls22.1league 25.7
Penalties0.42league 0.36
Home wins67%league 42%
Red Bull Salzburg

No previous matches with this referee.

Ferencvarosi TC

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Red Bull Salzburg2 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
1 0-15
16-30
31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Ferencvarosi TC2 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Red Bull Salzburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1 3 0-15
1 16-30
5 4 31-45
2 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
2 3 76-90
Ferencvarosi TC10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
3 1 0-15
2 4 16-30
3 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
1 2 61-75
4 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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