Rio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rio Ave were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Rio Ave had 6.9 days of rest, Estoril 6.1 and had to travel 300 km.
Away travel300 kmRest days6.9 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rio Ave45%
Draw28%
Estoril28%
Rio Ave46%
Draw26%
Estoril27%
Rio Ave45%
Draw28%
Estoril28%
Rio Ave38%
Draw28%
Estoril34%
Rio Ave46%
Draw26%
Estoril27%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila do Conde)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 54
Team strength
Rio Ave
Estoril
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
18
AttackIn forecast
21
21
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEstoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rio AveEstoril
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
78%
Scored inContext
67%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.78
ShotsContext
11.22
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
42%
On target shareContext
33%
6.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
65%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
16.89
Shots allowedContext
12.44
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
4.33
BlocksContext
2.63
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
73%
Save rateContext
60%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
355
PassesContext
380
290
Accurate passesContext
293
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.73
14.22
FoulsContext
12.78
14.78
Fouls sufferedContext
12.78
2.78
Yellow cardsContext
3.44
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.40
ShotsContext
11.10
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
43%
On target shareContext
35%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
67%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.50
16.20
Shots allowedContext
12.30
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.30
BlocksContext
2.89
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
72%
Save rateContext
63%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
362
PassesContext
380
297
Accurate passesContext
295
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.90
FoulsContext
13.20
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rio Ave
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km584 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Estoril
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel300 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rio Ave |
Estoril |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 300 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 584 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
4J. Panzo
32J. Brabec
63J. Lomboto
3N. Athanasiou
54G. Liavas
5A. Ntoi
17M. Vrousai
18D. Špikić
9Clayton
11André Luiz
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
25F. Bacher
44K. Boma
5A. Tsoungui
20Gonçalo Costa
10J. Holsgrove
6Jandro Orellana
22Pedro Carvalho
12João Carvalho
19André Lacximicant
14Y. Begraoui
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Estoril+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rio Ave · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Estoril · Away
0.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Rio Ave | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Rio Ave wins3 draws2 Estoril wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 22 Feb 2025Estoril2–1Rio Ave
- 21 Sep 2024Rio Ave2–2Estoril
- 31 Jan 2024Rio Ave1–1Estoril
- 20 Aug 2023Estoril2–0Rio Ave
- 13 Feb 2023Rio Ave2–0Estoril
- 19 Aug 2022Estoril2–2Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rio Ave | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.78 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 44% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Rio Ave | Estoril | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.78 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 44% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 33% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rio Ave | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 9.38 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.89 | 3.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.78 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 5.67 | 5.55 | 5.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Rio Ave | Estoril | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.30 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 9.11 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.40 | 5.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.15league 5.18
Red cards0.26league 0.27
Cards 5+48%league 63%
Fouls25.5league 27.8
Penalties0.20league 0.46
Home wins43%league 37%
Rio Ave5 with this referee
Record1-3-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D16 Mar 24A · Farense1–11
- D12 Nov 23A · GIL Vicente1–11
- L14 May 23H · Guimaraes0–10
- D16 Apr 23H · Casa Pia1–11
- W12 Mar 23H · GIL Vicente2–16
Estoril5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D8 Apr 24A · Casa Pia0–02
- L13 Jan 24H · Moreirense1–32
- D17 Dec 23A · Famalicao1–11
- L1 Oct 23A · Guimaraes2–35
- L29 Jan 23A · Famalicao0–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rio Ave9 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Estoril9 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
4
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
